Communication POLITICAL PROSPECTS IN THE FREE STATE
[To the Editor of THE SPECTATOR.] Sta,—The political crisis in the Irish Free State is long drawn- out. No one can yet see a clear outcome of the Blueshirt movement, or of Mr. de Valera's attack on the Constitution, let alone of the trade disloeation which has been the conse- quence of the Anglo-Irish dispute over the annuities. It is possible that in its various policies, taken singly, the Fianna Fail Government may still command the support of a majority of the electorate. But these policies cannot be taken singly, and there is, I think, little doubt that the past six months has witnessed the passing of many of the tactical advantages and much of the power of initiative formerly possessed by Mr. de Valera into the hands of the Opposition.
The recent decisive movements of the Opposition have been made by the Senate, in spite of the fact (perhaps because of it !) that this body, so far at least as it safeguards us against a merely mathematical democracy, is under sentence of death. The constitution is to become what Burke called a problem of arithmetic. Meanwhile, a group of Independents (University representatives and nominated members of the Conservative minority) hold the balance of power among the. Senators, who for the rest are divided about equally between the pro- fessional politicians of Labour and Fianna Fail and the professional politicians of the old Cosgrave party. The action of the Independents has not only prevented the Government from outlawing the Blueshirts sans phrase, but it has also obliged Mr. de Valera to put the fortunes of his party to the test at Local Government elections without further delay.
These local elections will be decided on a basis of rated occupiers. Mr. de Valera brought in a Bill which would base them on adult suffrage ; but the measure could not pass the Senate, and therefore will not become law for another year, or, alternatively, until another General Election returns the Fianna Fail party to power. Postponement of the con- test beyond June next without legislative sanction was impossible. Here, again, the Senate was a factor in the situa- tion ; it could not have been persuaded to consent to further delays. It is, however, suggested as a possibility that The announcement of local elections is a blind, intended to cover the secret purpose of the Government to precipitate a General Election on the issue of the Senates powers.
This is unlikely enough ; we may fairly assume that the local elections will be held on June 26th. They should offer a fair test of the Government's position with electors who have " something to lose." These elections will be held on strictly party lines : on the one side Fianna Fail, on the other the United Ireland collaboration of old Cumann-na-Gaedheal, MacDermotite Liberals and Blueshirts. Fianna Fail can look at the matter in this way : defeat will be a more serious matter for their opponents than for themselves. So much has been written about General O'Duffy's organizing genius that it will have to produce very material results eight weeks hence if the Opposition is not to be sadly discouraged ; whereas Fianna Fail, if defeated, can always claim that local elections are unrepresentative of public opinion.
It is a mistake to assume that there are no considerations other than those of irresponsibility, class-envy and fanaticism, that can bring votes to Mr. de Valera. With General O'Duffy as his chief rival, he may be regarded as the lesser of two evils by those whose chief fear is a renewed outbreak of civil war. I should not be surprised if this were a common opinion among the Roman Catholic Bishops. But the Blueshirt movement has had a big success among the young. The estimates which place General O'Duffy's following at between 80,000 and 90,000 are well-authenticated. The centres of the movement are in the country, not in Dublin where the large expenditure of the Government and its policy of industrialization are popular. Blueshirts have fared best, it is curious to notice, where the Republican Army is also strongest, in fighting areas like West Cork, South 'Tipperary and North Mayo. There have even been some cases where local leaders of Fianna Fail and the I.R.A. he-..e been detached from their old allegiance. The obvious strategy
of the Blueshirts for the moment is to keep strictly within the law, and to ref-Use to let the illegalities of the I.R.A. provoke
them to reprisals. The strong farmers are the background of the organization, and there are two main motives among the rank and file—a pietistic fear of the spread of Communism and anger at the collapse of cattle prices. What is passing through the minds of the leaders is less certain. But these men, several of them Irish Republican Brotherhood and Sinn Fein veterans, Michael Collins' old bodyguard of realists, have no illusions about the capacity of their fellow-countrymen for parliamentary democracy. General O'Duffy is probably a less convinced Fascist than the others.
The formation of a new militia side by side with the regular army is a clever move on the Government's part. In this way Mr. de Valera hopes to provide a counter-attraction to Blueshirt militarism, and at the same time to draw I.R.A. men and potential revolutionists along a primrose path to Fianna Fail allegiance and constitutional republicanism. The regular army originates in the hated Anglo-Irish Treaty ; whereas the new militia has an avowedly republican and separatist purpose.
The recent rearrangement of constituencies (which includes the disfranchisement of conservative Trinity College) is also frankly adapted to the party ends of Fianna Fail. Yet the rearrangement into smaller constituencies might tell against Fianna Fail, should the I.R.A. decide (as they did recently in the north) to put up candidates at the next General Election and split the republicans' vote. The I.R.A. are divided at present on this issue, as they are also on the question of avowed adhesion to a Communist programme.
There is existing an Irish Communist party, of very little importance except in its possible relations to the I.R.A., which it hopes to imbue with its principles. At a recent Convention of the I.R.A. Mr. Peadar O'Donnell, the well- known novelist, and others disagreed with some resolution that was brought forward and withdrew from the main body of the I.R.A. This action was described by the Communist party as the " revolt of a large section of the I.R.A." Mr. O'Donnell charged the Army Council not only with abetting the " retreat of de Valera from the Republic " but with servitude to Mr. de Valera's economic policy, which is described as " capitalist at its source." The Army Council retorted by pointing out that the I.R.A. have frequently denounced the Free State Government's " subservience to Irish capitalism " ; which is certainly true. The I.R.A. shrinks from the title of Communist ; but their organ, An Poblacht, carries on unreservedly a social-revolutionary pro- gramme. The statement of the Army Council denied that the issue at stake for Mr. O'Donnell and the other dissidents was the social question ; the real aim of the " new party " of Mr. O'Donnell is entry into the Free State Parliament, after which " it will inevitably travel the road which has been travelled by other constitutional parties." Speculation as to their possible electorial action is, however, futile if, as I believe to be the case, Mr. de Valera, with pessimistic reports coming in from his agents, has no intention of dissolving the Dail within a reasonable time. The trade dislocation con- sequent upon the present Government's " new deal " is now being felt by almost all ; yet the reports above mentioned probably exaggerate the Fianna Fail decline—the Opposition, it is known, still puts the date of a real landslide of public opinion, such as would provide the Cosgrave-MacDerrnot- O'Duffy combination with an effective Dail majority, at a year or so ahead. I personally believe that Fianna Fail is doomed within the next two years, but that a similar fate awaits the constitutional elements in the United Ireland party. Barring some miraculous outcome of the " new economic deal " the fight for power over a wasted land will be between a communistic I.R.A. and an Irish (very Irish) Communism and an Irish (very Irish) Fascism, with its roots in the old quarrel between the romantic and the realist in the Irish revolutionary temperament.—I am, Sir, &c., A CORRESPONDENT IN IRELAND.
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