Finance—Public & Private
Autumn Prospects
During the last few days a more hesitant tone has characterized certain markets and a moment of hesitation is sometimes a moment for consideration. I have never attempted, and I hope I shall never attempt, in these articles, the role of prophet as to movements of prices in particular securities, for although I know that, strangely enough, there are numbers of people who like nothing better than to be told that a certain security is about to rise or fall, the fact remains that if writers of financial articles possessed such knowledge of future events they would clearly be wasting their time in making prophecies on paper, but would be employing their gifts in a direction calculated to giire them a speedy. golden harvest. All that I propOse to do, therefore, in this 'article is to call attention to certain factors in the situation which may have an effect upon markets in the near future, and first of all I will mention one or two developments which are reasonably certain within the next few weeks. One of these is the fact that the great conversion operation of the 5 per cent. War Loan is about to become an event of the past, the operation formally terminating on Septem- ber 30th. Following upon its completion is likely-to come the new Government Loan, .but I do not think that this should have any disturbing effect.upon existing .high-class . investment securities, because the Goverruftent Is likely to be able to raise its Loan on very easy terms, while the operation will not, when it is completed, involve any real permanent transfer of money from the public to the Treasury, the amount borrowed being offset by the repayment of maturing obligations and cash payments to dissentient holders of the old 5 per cent. War Loan. And, similarly, with regard to the fresh Loan by the (Continued on page 428.)
Finance--Public and Private .
.(Continued from page "426.) will be lifted. _For the information of those .who may not have followed the matter, it should be noted that at so, I think—that as soon as the New South Wales opera- tion is concluded the embargo on new issues of capital the time of the issue of the- conversion operation at the and outstandingfea and been offering new stocks doubt, use the opportunity for s carrying lower rates of interest for the existing obligations. This should involve a good deal THE. Commonwealth Goveinment or the New- South Wales Government, as the case may be, for about £18,000,000,the operation -is entirely in the nature of a Conversion, New South Wales Bonds for'abont £18,000,000 maturing on November 1st. It is generally lelieved in the market—and rightly
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