THE SITUATION IN SOUTH AFRICA.
THE presence of our South African Squadron in Delagoa Bay, the news that a considerable force of artillery has been sent to Natal, the vote of £200,000 to increase the South African garrisons, aid the publication of a Blue- book dealing with the points at issue between the British Government and the Transvaal, are facts which make it imperative to trouble our readers once more with the South African problem. Though we still entertain hopes that moderate and peaceful counsels will prevail on both sides, we cannot but admit that the situation is at the present moment most grave. We are clearly, if not on the eve of war with the Boers, on the eve of occurrences which, if they take an unfortunate turn, will make it ex- tremely difficult to avoid war. The presence of the fleet at Delagoa Bay, and the military preparations, may possibly be regarded as only a demonstration of the forces which, if necessary, the British Government can employ. Statesmen have occasionally to use such demon- strations, not as a step in the direction of war, but rather as a means of preventing war. A timely reference to a solicitor is sometimes the best means of putting a stop to an action. If foreign Powers know that we have a strong fleet in Delagoa Bay they are not likely to encourage the Boers in unreasonable courses by the despatch of warships. Again, the Jingo party among the Boers, when they know that we are strong in guns, will not be so much inclined to urge their Government to take aggressive action on the ground that England will never fight. But though the show of force eau be thus treated as not necessarily very alarming, the same cannot be said for the new South African Blue-book. The despatches contained therein, though in no sense minatory in tone, are, as regards their substance, of a distinctly alarming character. They show how far the Transvaal Government has gone in infringing the pro- visions of the Convention, and the strong attitude adopted by our Government in regard to these infringements. The principal despatch indeed—dated March 7th last—closes by a formal request that the Transvaal Government will at once procure the repeal or formally suspend the opera- tion of the particular law, the Aliens Immigration Law, pending a final agreement being made in regard thereto. It will be seen from this fact that we are getting very near to an ultimatum to the Transvaal. If the Transvaal refuses to discuss, as is proposed, the provisions of a reasonable alien law, and one which shall not infringe the Convention—Mr. Chamberlain admits that there may be a real need for legislation on the subject—and insists on maintaining their present Act, it is difficult to see—un- less, of course, we were to recede from our present position —how we are to avoid maintaining the provisions of the Convention by physical force.
That this is a very serious situation no one will be able to deny. The first impulse of many of our readers will doubtless be one of extreme regret that we should thus be brought so near an outbreak of hostility with the Boers. The Raid, and the participation therein of the Prime Minister of the Cape and of at least two Imperial officers, put us so much in the wrong that it is impossible not to feel a special anxiety to act with more than ordinary modera- tion in regard to the Boers. Again, any action against the Transvaal at present cannot but play into the hands of the sordid intriguers who wish to control the Transvaal "in the interests of the gold industry." We sympathise with this feeling most strongly, we desire to do nothing that shall seem harsh or hostile to the Dutch race in South Africa, and we believe as strongly as ever that time will bring the best and most satisfactory solution of the South African problem. But though we feel this, and though our earnest desire is to avoid war, we can- not say that we can see how under the circumstances it would be possible for the Colonial Secretary to take up any other position than that assumed by him,—the position which has led to his present attitude. South Africa must remain British,—British, that is, in the sense that Canada and Australia are British. But if South Africa is to remain British, it is essential that the Convention with the Transvaal shall be main- tained. If that Convention goes, and the Transvaal becomes entirely independent, and not merely a Re- public within the British Empire endowed with a very complete autonomy, there is very great danger of losing the rest of South Africa. At any rate the future of South Africa is hopelessly compromised. With the Transvaal entirely independent, and standing towards the British Empire merely in the relation of a foreign State, the possibility of a United States of South Africa is gone for ever, or rather, if that union is ever accomplished, it will not be under the British hag. It is absolutely necessary, then, to the welfare of the British Empire that the Convention shall be maintained. If it is allowed to go by the board, Mr. Chamberlain and the rest of the Government will be in the position of trustees—the British Government are trustees of the Empire—who have not maintained their trust. But it may be argued that here is no fear of the Convention being infringed. The Boers have made no attempt at de- nouncing it, and have, on the other hand, repeatedly admitted its validity. This view, however, is unhappily not borne out by the facts. There are two essential features of the Convention. One is that British subjects, and indeed all other persons, shall have free right to enter and live in the Republic, and shall be placed under no disabilities as regards their persons or property, but shall be treated in these respects like citizens of the Republic. The other requires that all treaties between the Republic and Foreign States shall be submitted for the approval of the British Government before their final conclusion. It is clear that the Transvaal Government has broken these provisions in several instances, and when reminded of the fact has shown no readiness to put itself once more in the right. The Aliens Immigration Act is a clear breach of the Convention in regard to the rights accorded to British subjects and other persons, while the neglect to submit the Netherlands Treaty and two other treaties to the approval of the British Government constitutes also a violation of the Convention. But, it may be urged, these are only technical, and not substantial, breaches of the Convention, and need not, therefore' be the cause of any strong action. If the Transvaal had shown itself, even before the Raid, as on the whole friendly and anxious to work well with us, we admit that this would be a sound argument. Again it cannot be urged in the case of the treaties that the breaches are matters of a difference of opinion in regard to the interpretation of the Convention. Unfortunately it cannot be doubted that in their case the breach of the Convention was deliberate and intended. In regard to Mr. Schreiner's point that it is not always easy to determine in the case of legis- lation what is and what is not a breach of the Convention, we are ready to admit the difficulty. It is not, how- ever, one which can be solved by arbitration, if by arbi- tration is meant an appeal to the decision of a foreign Power. A foreign Power can no more be allowed by us to interpret the Convention than would a foreign Power be allowed by the United States to say whether State- rights had or had not been pressed too far. If, however, in a doubtful ease the Transvaal were to propose that the point of law should be referred to an Imperial judicial Tribunal which has often decided constitutional points- i.e., the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council—we see no reason to object, nor do we believe that the British Government would refuse its consent. The Transvaal, however, has never attempted to ask for such a judicial investigation of its claim to pass such a Bill as the Aliens Act. It has simply passed the Bill, and apparently intends to stick to its guns.
We should, however, in spite of all these considerations, prefer to give the Transvaal even more latitude than they have had were it not for one consideration. The Boers have suffered such an outrage at our hands, or rather at the hands of the men who controlled the Chartered Company—it was in no sense England which made the Raid—that we are naturally inclined to make them all the amendment in our power. That con- sideration, however, forbids us to allow the Boers to pass, even if they do not enforce, laws which violate the Con- vention, as Mr. Statham suggests in his very interesting and able "Case for the Transvaal," published in the May number of the National Review. He urges that even if the Aliens Act is a technical breach, we need not trouble about it, as it has not been, and never will be, enforced against reputable people. The consideration to which we refer is this. Small and technical breaches of the Con- vention, if allowed to go unchecked, will in the end destroy the Convention. If the Boers were friendly this might not be so ; but considering their feeling towards us, we cannot doubt that they have tried and are trying as a deliberate policy to whittle away the Conven- tion. Remember that the Convention, if once it becomes weakened, may be held to be a matter not merely between us and the Boers. Suppose a foreign Power a year or two hence were to conclude a treaty of virtual affiance with the Boers, and that we were obliged to protest against this and to inform the foreign Power that the Boers had acted ultra vires. What would be our position if on that the foreign Power told us that it could not admit our claim, were to remind us that the Con- vention had practically been allowed to drop, since we had not enforced it in a dozen instances "mentioned in the margin," and were to add that therefore they (the foreign Power) would regard it as an unfriendly act if we insisted —which, however, they denied our right to do—on not approving the treaty ? In fact, it wants nothing but common-sense to see that we cannot allow the Con- vention to be whittled away. The mere fact of whittling is in itself a sign of Boer unfriendliness which must be taken notice of. Though we think the Boers have suffered great wrong from Mr. Rhodes and his fellows, though we hate the very thought of a race war at the Cape, and though we would do all we could to bring the Boers to a reason- able frame of mind in regard to the breaches of the Convention, we are bound to say that the Government will have the country at its back if it finds it necessary to enforce the Convention by physical force. We have only one more word to say. If the Boers will only show them- selves frankly anxious to abide by the Convention, and to respect its provisions, they may be perfectly sure that the people of this country will not allow any attack to be made upon them. No quarrel will be picked with them, and no attempt will be made to take away their in- dependence as long as they honestly and truly maintain the Convention.
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