The new man at the Treasury
The Government has emerged from what was bound to be an awkward phase look- ing rather battered. The difficult patch be- tween the arrival of the new Ministers at their unfamiliar desks and the long breath- ing space provided by the parliamentary recess has proved a good deal rougher than Conservatives might reasonably have hoped. Some of the blows, notably of course the loss of Mr lain Macleod. have been of a kind which is beyond the range of human foresight. Others, the notable example being the South African arms fiasco, can be attributed to hasty or unim- aginative action in areas where blunders are very expensive. Throughout this period, symptoms of the declining health of the economy have continued to multiply.
After such a gruelling spell Mr Heath's team may well feel more than ordinarily relieved at the easing of pressure which comes with the parliamentary recess.
What now lies ahead. in fact. is a critical period in the lifetime of this administra- tion. The Government at last has a chance to settle down to the task of reconciling its own (and its supporters') aspirations with the remorseless limitations imposed by reality, as seen from the places of power rather than through the optimistic eyes of opposition. There is a long list of decisions to be taken. By the end of the summer time will press hard.
It will press harder upon the new Chan- cellor than upon any of his colleagues. Mr Barber has, indeed, picked up a fearsome burden, and in an atmosphere of some scepticism about his ability to bear it. The fact that his appointment has not been universally applauded need not prove to his ultimate disadvantage. A politician in whom is invested extravagantly high hopes merely has an extra ingredient of peril attached to his dangerous trade. as Mr Heath himself discovered after he be- came the leader of his party. In fact Mr Heath, in the acutely difficult task of find- ing a successor to Mr Macleod from an administration not overstocked with political weight. almost certainly made the right choice. This is true for a number of reasons. Mr Maudline is in the right place at the Home Office, where his brand of relaxed and intelligent coolness is urgently needed. Sir Keith Joseph. for all his obvi- ous qualifications, might well have eiven Treasury policy a direction different from that resolved upon by Mr Macleod and Mr Heath—which would have disturbed the Government's balance. Mr Barber's promotion implies continuity in the central strategy of the Government at a moment when anything else could have been severely damaging.
Moreover, Mr Barber is in an important sense more of a politician than any of the other possible candidates for the Treasury.
Many of the tributes paid to the memory - of Mr Macleod (and it has been moving to note: the warmth of those tributes, from all political quarters, to a man who knew the joy of battle as wholeheartedly as he did) have singled out among his qualities that mastery of the politician's art which he possessed. It was not as an economic wizard that he was expected to shine at the Treasury, or as an expert on the arcane mysteries of finance; it was as a politician.
a man able to gauge public desires and responses and a man able to present policies to the public with power and con- viction. Mr Barber has not attained the stature of his predecessor in this respect and he may never do so; for all that, he shares some of the same talents and is somewhat cast in the same mould.
There is no shortage of economic ex- perts in Whitehall or elsewhere; there never has been, in living memory. That abundance has not, unfortunately. led to the curing of the economy's chronic ail- ments. Mr Barber's experience ought to be enough to equip him to face the Trea- sury mandarins. After that. it will be up to him to the his politician's flair to reach decisions and then to carry the public with him in executing those decisions even when they are hard. The power to com- municate with the public is indispensable in a modern Chancellor—especially when the going is rough. Mr Barber may surprise some of his critics by his resourcefulness in this respect.
In the present uneasy setof circumstances. the immediate problem before him is not concerned with strategy but with tactics (and it is notoriously the case that in economic management tactics all too often frustrate strategy). The July unemploy- ment figures published last week were even worse than those for June, which were in themselves depressing enough. Before the publication of those figures it was still being said with firmness that the lime for any move designed to stimulate demand had not yet come; this view was buttressed by both the worsening trade figures and the prospect of substantial damage as a result of the dock strike. But in the face of unemployment figures like this, the arguments in favour of some reflationary measures assume new force. If the trend continues, the pressure upon Mr Barber to do something about it will become formidable.
Possibly Mr Barber will do something about it in the autumn, much as Mr Macleod had heavily hinted was his own intention. But his unexpected tenure of the Treasury will not in the end be judged by that. The Tories were elected to office in June with a full and radical set of promises about what the country could expect from a Tory Chancellor. Things may look distinctly less simple now than they did before 18 June. but the promises remain. There is above all a clear commit- ment to reduce the burden of taxation. This applies especially to the direct taxa- tion on the men and women upon whom the economy depends (these include dock workers as well as the managers of busi- nesses). It is imperative that a substantial step in this direction should be taken in the first Budget to be produced by Mr Heath's government.
It is clear that Mr Barber is as firmly committed to this promise as was his pre- decessor, and it is safe to suppose that he is as much in sympathy with the aim on doctrinal grounds as was Mr Macleod. His success in achieving the desired result will depend as much as anything else on his toughness and if necessary bloody-minded- ness in getting his way with the cuts in public expenditure which he will need. It is here that his close alliance with the Prime Minister will be of particular value. Indeed. the reshaping of the whole pattern of spending is more than a task for any Chancellor. It demands involvement by the whole Government, and Mr Heath's close identification with the necessary hard decisions may well prove of greater value to Mr Barber than a wider experience of high office in the past would have been. In the struggles that lie ahead Mr Barber will need the full weight of Prime Ministerial backing. He will also need better luck than this government has so far enjoyed.
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