China's Successes Chinese accounts of their victories in Shantung this
week may be exaggerated ; indeed their claims have already been slightly modified. Yet they are, in general, confirmed by reliable correspondents, and it is certain that a severe check has been given to the Japanese advance on the Yellow River. It seems possible indeed that the Yehow River may mark the limit of Japan's military successes. The invasion of South China has been indefinitely postponed, for the fighting in Shantung has put a severe strain on Japan's resources, and every effort will be required if the failure of the last week is to be repaired. It is true that her best troops have not yet been thrown into the battle, and that in Manchukuo she has 400,000 men in reserve ; but it is reported that owing to conditions there they cannot safely be withdrawn. Marshal Chiang Kai-shek, on the other hand, can point, " with some complacency " as a report says, to the improved morale of his men, who for the moment at least seem to have captured the initiative, and the effect of their success on the Chinese national move- ment is difficult to overestimate. In Peking, Japan's position is admitted to be serious. The most serious element in it is the absence, as this week's fighting has shown, of any prospect of a Chinese collapse or of any rapid end to the war ; given the unstable internal condition of Japan, an indefinitely prolonged war in China may have the most incalculable effects.
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