THE MIRACLE OF MR. TRUMAN
SIR,—Let us be careful about the American election. Some of the inferences drawn are rather wild. Our Conservatives and Labour people alike, ignoring the figures, are finding lessons which have little or no relevance to British conditions. The stunning effect of the event is due chiefly to two factors: the President's astonishing single-handed achievement, and the emphasis and unanimity of the false forecasts. The victory, although complete, had no margin to spare. The Duke's well-known remark about Waterloo applies here.
Mr. Edward Montgomery refers to " a decisive plurality of 2,500,000." This is the smallest popular majority since Wilson's in 1916, and it can be explained in part by the abortive third party. The writer of a letter to the New York Times says, quaintly, that " Wallace won the election." The statement is not so ludicrous as it may sound, since some millions of Wallace's followers, or sympathisers, either voted for Truman or else stayed away. The distribution of a few hundred thousand votes in the huge total of 47,000,000 could have made all the difference in the Electoral College.
One very important indication would seem to have been overlooked. Within the past thirty years four presidential contests and four British elections have furnished support for the view that a multitudinous electorate moves in the mass, voting usually against a party or leader. The main figures in the American poll (roughly 23 against 21 millions) prove that in the country having the largest electorate voting freely, a tolerable balance can still be attained.—Faithfully yours,
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