Finance—Public and Private
Political and Financial Camouflage
suoi-Lo like to draw the attention of those readers of is Spectator who may be interested in the industrial iture of this country to one or two points in the situation hell, I think, will repay consideration. The first of ese is what seems to me- to be a growing disposition to afraid to look facts boldly in the face and to cultivate loptimism unjustified by the actual facts. During the past week the Foreign Trade Returns were sued for February, showing a further serious shrinkage th in imports and exports as compared with a year o. Had these Returns been of a favourable character ev would have been blazened in the papers and there oUld have been much talk of a coming boom, but, ,ause the figures were unfavourable, either scant tention was given to them by most of the leading jour- . Is, or attempts were made to minimize their importance significance. And yet, in the United States, which achieving records not merely in wealth acquirement millionaires but in general industrial prosperity tending to all sections of the community, even a slight diction in exports or a decline in the favourable trade lance would have been the subject of discussion and ncern throughout the business community in that untry
ADVERSE TRADE FIGURES.
Briefly summarized, the figures for the month of bruary showed a decline of about £3,000,000 in the lue of imports and a little over £12,000,000 in the value exports (affected in part, it is true, by lower prices), e comparison being made with the same month of last r, while the visible adverse trade balance of £30,000,000 wed an increase of over £9,000,000 compared with bruary, 1926. Not only so, but the growing size of ese visible adverse trade balances may be judged from e fact that whereas for the year 1923 the visible adverse de balance was £211,000,000, it had risen in 1924 to 14,000,000, and in 1925 to £395,000,000, while for the ar 1926 the visible adverse balance was £465,000,000. or can it be said that these figures have not been fully fleeted in the returns of unemployment, while for the st two years, at all events, the reaction has also been ii in the National Accounts.
TRITE OPTIMISM.
I cannot help thinking that it should be possible to call tention to facts and figures such as these without being eased of pessimism. The Micawbers who prefer to shut eir eyes to all unpleasant features in the situation, and prepared to wait for " something to turn up," may be , convivial company, but, for the true optimist, amend me to the one who recognizes the facts and e difficulties in the situation, and, having done so, sees them a stimulus to effort sufficiently strong, not only overcome the difficulties, but to make them the stepping- nes to prosperity. To-day, however, the disposition ins rather to be content that things are no worse, and be satisfied with the prospect of some improvement, sever slight, as the result of a mere reaction from esent conditions of depression.
STRIKING REMEDIES.
Moreover, there is another point in the situation which curious and interesting, though I cannot help thinking t it is rather alarming. refer to the tendency not rely to shirk a facing of the facts, but to close the rs in advance to possible remedies. Some time ago nimittees were appointed by the Government to .estigate the National Expenditure, with a view to numies, but in' the. case Of -one departMent, namely, Il Service and the outlays for so-called social expendi- , examination was practically ruled out. In other 'xis, whether the interests of the country as a whole or did not require reductions in these directions, tieal expediency denied not merely the remedy t even its consideration. Again, as regards our indus- depression, it seems to be in order for the critic to discuss monetary policy, efficiency or inefficiency of plant, currency regulations, tariffs, international agree- ments, limiting hours of labOur, and so forth, but the one thing which must not be discussed is the question of trade union restrictions or inefficient labour, even though in both directions we may clearly be found wanting when measured by conditions in competing countries.
COURAGEOUS EFFORT NEEDED.
I am not necessarily suggesting that the causes of our trade depression or even of the unsatisfactory position of the National Balance Sheet are to be found in the directions I have indicated. All that I alp concerned with at the moment is in demonstrating what I believe to be true, namely, that the refusal to look facts in the face which has been evident ever since the War and the tendency to " camouflage " which seems also to be an inheritance of the same period, goes much deeper and more nearly affects the welfare of the country than is generally perceived. I firmly believe that if a thoroughly impartial body of business men, free from all political ties and bias, were to investigate our industrial and financial—including the national accounts--con- ditions here during the past seven years, always bearing in mind the conditions and developments in other countries, they would conclude their reports with such recommendations as, if ruthlessly carried out by a strong Government, would very quickly bring back to this country all its former prosperity. At present, unfortunately, the proceeds of our past prosperity are being used for a kind of coddling process, while other nations are undergoing more robust treatment, with the result that their stamina is steadily improving. It must not be supposed that I am unmindful of many causes of trade depression beyond our control, such as conditions in many parts of Europe and the advantages which have accrued to some of the competing nations as a result of the War, but I suggest that those very facts make it the more imperative that the realities of the position should be more completely recognized.
ARTHUR W. KIDDY.
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