FINANCIAL NOTES.
It must not be supposed that because for the first nine months of the fiscal year there was an excess of expenditure over revenue of £80,000,000 we are, therefore, confronted with the probability- of the current year ending: with some- such serious shortcoming. Care- fully examined the returns give no- ground for such gloomy anticipations. Briefly stated, the revenue up to December 81st shows a decline of £52,000,000 as com- pared with the official estimate of a shrinkage -for the entire year of £95,500,000. It will be seen, therefore, that there is still a considerable margin for a further heavy decline in Income Tax revenue during the final quarter of the year without the original estimates being neces- sarily falsified. At present the expenditure for the nine months shows an increase of L5,000,000, but 'that period covers the whole of a year's service on our debt to the United States, and there seems some reason for hoping that smaller outlays may characterize the next three months. The deficit so far, of course, is due to the fact that normally there must always be a tendency for a deficit in the accounts until the big inflow of revenue during the final quarter.
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If only by reason of the probable change in Government, all the greater interest will be taken in the state of the national finances during the next few months, and assuming that the Labour Government remains in office until then, the next Budget will be very anxiously awaited. I should imagine, however, that already the departmental estimates of expenditure for the current year have been prepared, and it would not be surprising if these estimates were accepted by any incoming Government. In that case there is reason, perhaps, to hope that nothing very drastic may be attempted in the next financial programme, for if the retiring Government has been zealous in pruning the new estimates, the deficit for the new year—even allowing for a falling off in revenue—may not be so very great.
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As might be supposed from the satisfactory character of the balance sheet, the recent meeting of shareholders of the British American Tobacco Company was quite a harmonious affair. The report had shown a small increase in profits for the year with a maintenance of the dividend at 25 per cent., and a still further increase in the carry-forward, so that this figure now stands at the really colossal total of over £8,500,000. As the Deputy- Chairman, Mr. A. G. Jeffress, told the shareholders at the recent meeting, the net revenue is being obviously affected at the moment by foreign exchange conditions, but all the same this huge carry-forward in a well-managed, prosperous undertaking certainly _seems suggestive of something in- the shape of a big- dividend or bonus distribution at some later date.
A. W. K.
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