A FRUITFUL HARVEST.

IN commenting upon Harvest prospects, on July 8th, we pointed to the probability of a generally satisfactory result, though we were unable to endorse the sanguine expec- tations with respect to the wheat crop held by some observers. The season had been such that a good yield of wheat, in pro- portion to the thick growth of straw, was an impossibility, whatever the weather might be afterwards. Fortunately, brilliant weather set in before the end of July, and a large proportion of the wheat crop has been gathered in, in the early districts of the country ; but, nevertheless, it is now generally admitted that the crop is under what is termed an "average." The barley crop has vastly improved since the beginning of July, and has turned out better than any one could have ex- pected then. Other crops which promised well at the period Just referred to have fully realised expectations. The ina,ngel crop was not one of these, and it is not a satisfactory crop, though better than last year's crop was at this period of growth. The annual returns published last Monday in two of the Agri- cultural papers show that wheat and mangels are the only crops below average, and the former is considerably above the mean average of the last seven years. But what is this "average" which is so much above the mean produce of the last seven years ? We ask the question, because we find, on consulting a table published in the Mark Lane Express, that during the fifteen years ending with 1881, the wheat yield has been only twice—in 1868 and 1874— estimated at over average ; while in each of the thirteen re- maining years it was returned as under average, and in all instances but one-1870—as greatly under average. Now, it is a contradiction in terms to represent a crop as being under average in thirteen years out of fifteen, and that such a re- presentation should have been made, on the aggregate authority of some hundreds of skilled agricultural observers, proves that the term " average," as applied to the wheat crop, is only a historical expression, if it be anything better than a vague distortion of memory, a happy but fanciful image of tLe "good old times." We are glad to see that the Nark Lahe Express, apparently dissatisfied with this exceedingly vague method of estimating crops, has this year, for the first time, given figures, instead of the terms "over average," "average, and "under average," in the returns published on Monday. In one column we find the estimated mean average yield of each of the principal crops for the last seven years in each dis= trict reported on, and in the next column a similar estimate as to the probable produce of the present harvest. As several districts in every county in England are represented, the in- formation to be derived from these statistics is valuable. Leaving the Welsh Counties out of account, as not large pro- ducers of wheat, and scarcely sufficiently represented in the re- turns to afford trustworthy data, we find that the estimated mean average yield of wheat in England during the last seven years was 24i bushels per acre, while the estimated yield for this year is 27 bushels per acre. Now, an " average " crop of wheat has been put at 28 bushels per acre ; so, according to the returns, the wheat crop of 1882 greatly exceeds the mean average pro- duce of the previous seven years, but falls a little short of the historical average. We have already shown that the experi- ence of fifteen years proves that the standard ought to be re- duced, and a small reduction would leave the wheat crop of 1882 in the position of an over-average crop. It cert iinly is above the average of the last fifteen years.

With respect to estimates of the other crops, we find tl.e same incongruity as has been pointed out in the case of whea+.

Barley has been represented as being under average in eleven years out of fifteen, oats in eleven, beans in fourteen, and peas in thirteen. For all these crops, then, if the returns of the agricultural paper are worth anything, the standard of an " average " has been put too high. In 1866, the Mark Lane Express, judging from information supplied by its corre- spondents, gave the following quantities as average yields for England :—Wheat, 28 bushels per acre ; barley, 40 bushels ; oats, 48 bushels ; peas, 32 bushels ; and beans, 32 bushels. Probably, these quantities were commonly obtained at the time, as there were some good seasons between 1860 and 1866; but we doubt whether they have been realised over any long term of years throughout the whole country. Anyhow, they are too high for these degenerate agricultural times, and crop critics—if they usually have anything as distinct as figures in their minds at all—would do well to reduce them, when writing or talking about "average " crops. It is not necessary to go through the many long columns of figures before us, to assure us that these quantities have not been prc- citiced as the mean averages of the last seven harvests. A comparison of the summarised returns of the Mark Lane Express with those of the Agricultural Gazette shows this dic- tinctly. In the former, " average " signifies the mean produce of the seven years ; in the latter, it means the old average, as above indicated, for each of the cereal and pulse crops. Reduced to per-centages, the two summaries are as follows :—

MARK LANE EXPRESS.

1882.

Over average Average Under average Total

1882.

Over average Average Under average— Total The difference in the two standards is obvious, from a com- parison of these tables. Probably, they might be mixed with advantage. The old standard average is as much too high as the mean average of the last seven seasons would be too low. Yet it is gratifying to see how well the crops, according to the Agricultural Gazette returns, bear the severe test of the old standard. All but wheat are over average in the return, oats and beans greatly so.

It is a remarkable and a gratifying feature of the present season, that we have at once good crops of grain and pulse, and one of the heaviest yields of hay ever known. It is very seldom that this happy combination occurs. The prospects of roots and potatoes we have already alluded to ; they are sufficiently satisfactory, on the whole, to keep up the character

Wheat. Barley. Oats. Borns. Pea.,

58.2 ...

580

... 62.0 73.2

60.9 207

23.4

... 240

17.3

16-7

21.1 18.6

_ 140

9.5 22.4

100 100 100 100 100 AGRICULTURAL GAZETTE.

Wheat. Barley. OAS. Beans,

Pea-.

10.8 — 31.4 — 46.1

41.0 _ 26*0

40.4

... 48.0 „ , 437 48 8 „. 548 48.8 — 206 ...

10.2

7.2 _ .., 19.2

100 100 — 100 1( 0 1(0

of the year as a generally fruitful one. From all sides we hear that farmers are in better spirits than they have enjoyed for a prolonged period, and, with fine weather, they will, no doubt, re3over some portion of their recent losses. For the general public a fruitful and fine harvest means, not only cheap and good bread, but an impetus to all branches of trade,—in short, a clear creation of wealth, that must be shared, more or less, by all classes of the people.