Ulster on the brink
Mr Callaghan is one of nature's optimists, as we all learned to our cost during his years at the Treasury. The optimism he expressed to the reassembled House of Commons on Monday about the situation in Ulster after another bloody weekend sounded hardly more substantially based than the optimism he used to radiate about the balance of payments. As Martin Wallace points out elsewhere in this issue, he seems to have seized upon the evidence, which does exist, of a more co-operative spirit among the Catholic minority, while discounting too easily the evidence of growing despair among the Protestant majority.
It profits us little to attribute many of the Protestants' fears and resentments to material causes—the shortage of jobs and inadequate housing—or to regret that these hardships are unreasonably blamed upon the Catholic birthrate. Emotion, and not reason, holds sway in Northern Ireland, and reasoned argu- ment at Westminster will not change this situation. The Protestants feel that Miss Devlin and the black flag of anarchy have captured the field from which their own leaders at Stormont have been forced to withdraw by pressures from Whitehall: and assurances that the union with Great Britain is not, and will not be, called in question fall on deaf ears.
Miss Devlin is no doubt justified in claiming that Unionist governments in Stormont have fed their working class supporters on a diet of superiority calcu- lated to distract their attention from the neglect of their material needs, and that it is inevitable that these people should new be suffering from withdrawal symptoms. The bewailing of past mis- takes is no substitute for constructive advice on how to deal with the situation they have created. And of constructive advice Miss Devlin has none to offer. This situation is one in which all the elements of open insurrection. except one. are now assembled. The Protestant extremists are armed, and will not easily be disarmed. The members of the North- ern. Ireland government, from Major htchester-Clark down. are almost at the Rd of their tether. The former Minister f Horne Affairs, Mr Craig. is making n open bid for the support of dis- untied ,Uniplists.,, The army has, hrough no tauit of its own, beCoMe iden- tified with one side in the conflict—as the Commander-in-Chief warned it would be—and with the minority at that. If it now begins to suffer serious casualties an assumption of direct rule by West- minster will become unavoidable, how- ever reluctant the Government may be to make the move. The scene would then be set for armed insurrection and what would amount to a state of civil war in the Province. As it is, after Tuesday night's stormy meeting of the Unionist parliamentary party, Mr Craig was guilty of more than wishful thinking when he declared that Ulster was already at the brink.
The one element so far missing—and it is, fortunately. an important one—is leadership for the Protestant extremists. Mr Paisley, who appeared to be groom- ing himself for this position, has in the past few days shown signs of taking fright at the forces he has conjured up. Mr Callaghan's attack upon him in Mon- day's debate, justified though it un- doubtedly was by Mr Paisley's intemper- ate behaviour in the past, might have been better omitted from his speech for this reason. Paradoxically, however. it could help to strengthen Mr Paisley's in- fluence with the inhabitants of the Protestant back streets of Londonderry and Belfast if he has belatedly realised where violence is leading.
Reforms have now been imposed in Northern Ireland which may have been long overdue, but which would neverthe- less have been regarded as unthinkable even six months ago. These reforms can- not, and must not, now be reversed But there is an urgent need—of which Mr Callaghan has not so far shown himself to he sufficiently aware—for steps to re- assure the majority of the population that it will get fair treatment under the new dispensation. There may have been good reasons for the decision not to force the dismantling of Catholic barricades: but those reasons can no longer be con- sidered valid should the barricades re- appear. It must be shown, as rapidly as possible, that the new rules regarding non-discrimination in employment are going to be applied for the benefit of Protestants as wcfl as Catholics. Financial resources will have to be allocated to the urfent improvementiof housing condi- Protestifdas.will as in Catholic areas of the two cities of Northern Ireland.
There is. moreover, an added compli- cation which stems from the existence of partition. The British welfare state arrangements which the Northern Irish enjoy. and which have largely destroyed the appeal of reunification as a political rallying cry for the Catholic minority, already act as a strong attraction to immigrants from the South. At present the inflow of unskilled workers is effec- tively restricted by their inability to obtain housing or work permits. But if a large number of additional jobs and houses were provided under a crash pro- gramme. such as Mr Hogg has suggested, there is a danger that the scale of immi- gration could get rapidly out of hand. Distasteful as it may seem, there is a strong case for stringent temporary restrictions on the movement of people into the Province until the plight of those who are already there has been relieved.
Even so. it will take years to provide the Protestant majority with a standard of living sufficiently improved to com- pensate them for the loss of their privi- leged political status. Indeed, the immediate consequence of this loss of privilege is bound to be a worsening of the material situation enjoyed by Protest- ants in areas where. until now, they have had a prior claim on housing. Mean- while. evidence that non-discrimination can work to the advantage of both com- munities will still be required.
Perhaps the best hope for the immedi- ate future is the relative helplessness of the Protestant extremists. They cannot look for much support at Stormont. and even less at Westminster. Their leaders lu.ve been chastened by a glimpse of the abyss. The army is now established in sufficient numbers to deal with major disturbances Perhaps they may reflect that a transfer to direct Westminster rule —rule by a Government answerable to a party whose sympathies are almost wholly with the other side—which would inevitably follow a further escalation of viclence is precisely what the civil rights leaders, or at least the more extreme elements among them. have wanted to bring about all along. But the situation is going to remain desperately tense fot weeks And monitu,t4l.gim4,59,903i Vm's 2.,ptimism,is not enough.
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