YUAN SHIN-KAI AND HIS TASK. T HE fancy might occupy itself
endlessly speculating on what Yuan Shih-kai will wish, or be able, to do with the enormous powers which opportunity has brought him. Etiquette required him to refuse the Premiership at least once, but he continued to refuse it as though to beat into the Imperial brain at Peking the great need which the Court had of his services. Having done this sufficiently, he has at last arrived at Peking, and it is not too much to say that the fortunes of China, to make or to mar, he in the hollow of his hand. The troops of the whole of Northern China are at his disposal ; even the Imperial Guards in Peking are his servitors ; he dwells in the " Temple of Worthies," from which auspicious house Li-Hung-chang carried on the negotiations for peace and reconstruction after the Boxer rising. The power in sub- stance and in form is his. What will he do with it ?
We take it that Yuan Shih-kai will act as a moderate man. It may be, of course, that a consuming ambition will descend. upon him, and he will use a favourable oppor- tunity, of which there are likely to be several, to usurp the throne, or to become in effect an emperor while allow- ing himself to be called the President of a republic. But we do not expect this. Yuan's history proves that he is disinclined by nature to try to achieve more than can be safely fashioned out of the circumstance of the moment. He is an opportunist. It would be a mistake to think that because he has always been a reformer he will accept the wildest revolutionary projects. While the late Emperor was issuing his amiable but nerveless edicts in praise of Western methods, Yuan might have been expected to be a devout follower of the Imperial lead. In many respects he no doubt was so in principle, but he knew that the weak youth hidden away in the palace was not a man with success written on his brow, and he did just what other reformers least expected him to do— he appeared to go back upon his principles, got into negotia- tion with the Empress-Dowager, and consented to the stroke by which the reforming Emperor was removed from the throne. It may never be possible for Englishmen to fathom the motives which were at the bottom of Yuan's action then. He cannot have approved of the " Old Buddha "; perhaps he preferred efficient wrong-doing to seeing reform impotently introduced and discredited at its fountain-head. Now the rebels in their exultation demand the end of the Manchu dynasty, and even require that members of the Imperial clan should be prevented from ever holding office as Ministers. Yuan probably perceives the ridiculousness of eternal proscriptions ; and as for the end of the Manchu dynasty he is, we fancy, moderate enough to see that a compromise is more likely to succeed than the ferocious idealism of a complete revolution. When a revolution aims at too much it is soon proved to have accomplished too little ; you proclaim your " rights of man," and before long they are found to be in practice sound and fury signifying nothing. Yuan is more likely to try to save a nominal power for the Throne and govern through a constitutional Parliament. We do not forget that the present rising is definitely an anti-Manchu movement. The Chinese are sick of the Tartar domination, which has lasted nearly three hundred years, and intend that it shall cease. There is no mis- taking the signs. The revolution is strongest in. those dis- tricts where liver the traditions of the Tai-ping rebellion. The latest rebellion is only one of a long series, but it is the greatest of all. Although Yuan is himself a Chinese, he probably understands, unlike the rebels, the convenience Of governing through an existing monarchy. For one thing the Monarchy is a symbol of unity, and the idea of unity, of filial piety towards the centre of government, is inherent in the whole Confucian philosophy.
It will be said that one province after another has declared its independence—that, indeed, the Chinese pro- vinces have always been distinguished by independence— and that the unity of China has already gone. But of what are the provinces to be independent ? They could not thrive as self-governing States. They probably have broken away only from the old system of corruption, injustice, and obscurantism, and would willingly attach themselves in due course, when the fever and shouting have died away, to the theory of a central system which is pure and progressive. This, at all events, is what Yuan hopes for. He will try to govern through a limited monarchy, which will save as much as possible of the old spirit of China—a very important matter—aid hopes gradually to win back the allegiance of the provinces. We are con- vinced that he will be found playing for a whole China and not for a split China. He is a centralist and an Im- perialist, but he is still characteristically a Chinese. He is not so much Europeanized as Sun Yat Sen, and he would not think, like him, of suddenly converting China into a Western democracy. And his Imperialism has another aspect which mustbe noticed. When he was appointed to reorganize the Army in 1903 he began to carry out on a vast scale the military reforms which he had applied in earlier days to a single army corps. He is an extremely able organizer, and his Imperialism will certainly be backed by substantial military strength. In other words, the revolution in China will be in its ultimate issue a soldier's victory. The cue of the rebels at present is to treat foreigners with elaborate consideration ; but if China should become conscious that she at last has a strong right arm foreign intruders may expect to be less secure in their foothold. We are thinking only of aggressive designs undertaken by foreign Powers and backed by their Governments. We do not refer to the individual presence of foreigners in China or to the commercial enterprise of foreigners, which we imagine will be encouraged by all the clear heads who recognize what wealth freedom of exchange brings to the country. The Manchus have always stood in the way of progress. In that sense the Manchus must go finally, and we believe their doom is already sealed. But as to the prospect of a great military revival we do not join with the pessimists who foresee the addition of a. new and huge area to the quarrelling grounds of the world. Certain Powers may indeed have to abandon the hope of making good shadowy claims, but that will not be an element of danger. Japan, as the nearest neighbour of China, is likely to be the most closely affected, and perhaps it would not be outrageous to divine that Yuan's early experiences in Korea, where he was Director-General of Trade and International Relations, have made him sympathetic towards the Koreans and unsympathetic towards the Japanese. China is remote from us geographically and mentally. But, though we Westerners cannot feel the situation very acutely, the prospect for millions of human beings is as enthralling as when Napoleon became master of Europe, and the civilized world looked on breathlessly to see what he would do with his power. Yuan, though an opportunist in statecraft, is a resolute and courageous man when he has made up his mind. This was proved when he took upon himself to hold in leash his Shantung troops during the Boxer rising, although the Empress-Dowager at that moment needed them to overwhelm the international band of sailors who were marching on Peking to relieve the legations. Yuan recognized the fanatical folly of the Boxers, and knew the Empress-Dowager's mind even better than she knew it herself. He was justified. He won approval at the Chinese Court when it came to counting up the points which could be pleaded in extenuation of Chinese conduct before the great Powers, and he won credit from foreigners as a sagacious and civilized official. He thus stood forth as the man of the moment in the opinion of all. He is now very little over fifty years old. It is believed that the rebels are not indisposed to acknowledge his rule. It is his to find the formula of agreement. Will it or will it not be the absolute removal of the Monarchy ? It is an intensely interesting moment.
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