THE NEW TREND OF PSYCHICAL RESEARCH.
pERHAPS the most interesting thing about Mr. Pod- more's very interesting volume of psychical studies just published by Messrs. Kegan Paul is the evidence it affords of a new trend in psychical research. The "better opinion " as to matters psychical, to use the lawyer's useful phrase in regard to that uncertain bat important matter, the law, appears to be now almost exactly the opposite of what it was ten or a dozen years ago. Then those who investigated spiritualistic pheno- mena were apt to hold that there was a clear line dividing the physical from the psychological manifestations, and that all the best evidence was on the physical side of the line. It was, that is, often asserted that while you could bring very fair evidence to show that heavy tables had danced about by them- selves, that mediums had been "levitated "—i.e., had floated in the air—or that objects had been moved without contact, there was no evidence worth a rush for the phenomena which were really spiritual,—which showed that mind could communicate with mind at a distance, or that the spirits of the d -ad could exert an influence on the intelligence of the living. This view of the evidence had prima fade a good deal to recommend it, and it had also this great attraction. By admitting, or partly admitting, evidence as to physical phenomena, no one was committed to any- thing which could be regarded as utterly subversive of "modern ideas." Modern ideas are held to exclude the notion of intercommunication between this world and another. That was the folly of a superstitious and unscientific age. To the limits of physical science no bounds must, however, be put, and even in spite of the protests of men of science, it must be assumed that any number of new forces might any day be discovered. It was possible, then, to accept, or at any rate not reject, the marvels of table-turning without upsetting modern ideas of the universe. The unscientific man need only suppose some hitherto unrecognised natural force and he had a ready explanation at hand for any number of Mr. Home's parlour wonders. The same unrecognised force would explain the vagaries of the "Poltergeist," and the raps, hammerings, and thumpings heard in haunted houses. People are always more ready to believe what they think prima facie possible than what they think prima facie impossible. It is the commonest thing in the world for people to say, "I can believe that," and to believe it accordingly on the slenderest possible evidence. It soon, then, became the fashion to distinguish vehemently between the possible " results " of a possibly unrecognised force and the hallucina- tions of brain-sick dreamers. In such cases there was, it was alleged, nothing to go upon except the testimony of the frightened or the semi-insane. But in the case of the table. turning there was something definite and tangible. As Smith said of the bricks, in support of Jack Cade, "The tables are alive at this day to testify it." Thus, even when the physical phenomena of spiritualism were not actually accepted, it was very generally and very sincerely believed that they had the best of the evidence.
Of late, however, those who interest themselves in psychical research have begun to swing round to another and different view. A closer and more impartial examination of the evidence seems to show that instead of the testimony being worse on the spiritual side of the problem, it is really stronger and more able to meet the strain of examination. Take Mr. Podmore's extremely impartial book just alluded to. It is impossible to leave it without the impression that he believes that all the really good evidence belongs to what used formerly to be considered the most doubtful part of the case, and that the physical phenomena obtain a far more doubtful support from the evidence. When we say this we do not mean to imply that we think Mr. Podmore's book certainly or necessarily discredits all the alleged physical phenomena. Even he seems half inclined to think that Mr. Home's phenomena are an exception. Still less do we wish to assert that the truly spiritual phenomena are proved. As we have said above, all we desire to point out is the very remarkable change that is taking place in regard to the attitude of the beat qualified observers. The old notion that the things which could conceivably be accounted for without spiritual action are better testified than those which must either be false, or else must be what for want of a better word we must call truly spiritualistic, is no longer tenable. If the evidence is gone into with an open mind, it is the physical phenomena, the phenomena which may be the results of conjuring tricks, which are the first to go. This fact may be due to many causes, but one is worth mentioning and dwelling upon. By their very nature it is easier to get unassailable evidence about appearances at the hour of death or cases about thought-transference than about a fact like levitation. Take the case of Home floating out of one window and in at another which was witnessed by three men of the highest character, men who were beyond all doubt sincere in their testimony. But though this evidence is per se as good as ever hung a man at the Assizes— if levitation had been a capital offence, counsel for the prosecution could have said here are three credible witnesses who swear to seeing the crime committed—it is quite possible to suggest a line of argument which will shake our belief in it. Mr. Podmore, for example, suggests that Home may have half-hypnotised the witnesses, and then "led" them to think they saw what they did not see :—
" It may be conjectured that Home probably supplied certain material data, and guided the imagination of the percipients to complete the picture which he suggested to them. That, for instance, he really took live coals out of the fire, and possibly on some occasions held them in his hand, protected by some non-conducting substance ; that he really stretched himself to his full height, and thus produced that breach of continuity between waistcoat and trousers referred to by one of the witnesses to the phenomenon of elongation ; that when levitated as de- scribed in Chapter III., p. 52, he at least thrust his head and shoulders out of the window."
Very possibly this is not the true explanation of the pheno- mena, but at any rate it is one which can be put forward with
a very considerable show of reason. Now compare this with the evidence for appearances at the hour of death, of which hundreds of examples can be produced. Here the usual type of story is that of a vision or dream in which a certain person is recognised, and afterwards it appears that the person in question died. Now if, as in the best instances quoted, the person who sees the vision communicates the fact of the vision or puts it on record, and then hears that the death has actually occurred, the evidence for the " facts " is practically unchallengeable. We do not want to know that A did actually see the figure of a man. We only want to know that he thought he did,—i.e., had the impression in his mind. If that fact is established, and also the death, there is little possibility of challenging the evidence as due to a mistake or to an hallucination. The whole transaction moves in the spiritual field, and to establish hallucination establishes nothing damaging to the story. Of course, to say this is not to say that the facts show that there was a communication with a disembodied spirit. That is an in- ference from the facts, not a fact. Once establish the facts, and we may begin to consider whether coincidence
or telepathy will best account for them. Mr. Podmore infers that the coincidence theory in the cases of appear- ance at the hour of death is untenable because a mathe- matic calculation shows them to be four hundred times
more numerous than chance would allow. This, however, seems to us to be not altogether convincing. The odds are as great that zero will not turn up five times running, but in spite of that it occasionally does so. Still, in the main we are agreed that the theory of coincidence cannot account for all the stories of wraiths and telepathic hallucinations. You cannot, of course, assert absolutely that they are not coincidences, any more than you can assert absolutely that when you ask for a ticket to the Mansion House, and receive one, it is not a coincidence ; but for all that you are sure that it is not. But it must not be supposed that even to abandon the coincidence theory as the explanation of the facts of a wraith- story is to accept the theory of communion with the spirit- world. It is possible that telepathy or thought-transference
will account for the facts. A dies in Australia, and B sees a vision of his death. Bat C or D knew of the death, and possibly thought or dreamt of B in connection with the death, and his thought may have been transferred to B. To avoid this hypothesis entirely one wants A to die alone in the desert, and B to see the vision before any live human being can have known or guessed the death. We want also to be sure that A was really dead and not alive, though moribund, and so still able to transfer a mundane thought into B's mind. As yet no sound recorded story fulfils these conditions com- pletely.
This line of thought suggests a very curious reflection. It is that the establishment of the fact that thought-transference does take place—we cannot doubt that it has been established 'by the researches of the Psychical Society—has done a good deal to impair the spiritualistic explanation of many phenomena. We do not say that it destroys the spiritual- istic explanation entirely, but in many cases it does provide an explanation which will fit the facts, and does not oblige us to adopt a belief in the power of the -dead to communicate with the living. Yet even if we accept this view there is still a residuum of the un- explained. Some of the beat authenticated psychical stories have in them an element of premonition and prevision. 'Unless the facts are false they involve the foretelling of the future. Yet the notion of a fixed future is so tan- imaginable, so impossible, that one would adopt almost any hypothesis rather than accept it.
We do not, however, wish to dwell upon these stories too -strongly, for they, like the wraith-stories, are no doubt capable of being explained by the theory of coincidence. Before we leave Mr. Podmore's book we must, however, -notice his very interesting account of Mrs. Piper. In her it would really seem as if the Researchers had obtained the opportunity for serious investigation they have so long -desired. She is not a medium who throws tables about, but is simply, on the spiritualistic theory, a human being capable -of letting herself be made the mouthpiece of external in- telligences. Possibly she may turn out in the end as great a disappointment as the others. But at any rate her doings are worth inquiring into. Up till now she has not been found out, and some of her clairvoyant experiences have been most onrious.
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