Persia and Russia
The bulk of Persia's trade is traditionally with Russia ; this is a question of simple geography, and there is therefore nothing intrinsically strange in the fact that Moscow has suggested to Tehran that negotiations for a new trade agreement might be opened, or that Tehran has accepted the suggestion. Unfortu- nately the Persians, from long experience of their northern neigh- bour, and the rest of the world, from more recent experience, tend on an occasion like this to question whether there is not some motive prompting the Russians more subtle than the simple and laudable wish to see the channels of international trade flowing freely. Time alone will show whether this scepticism is justified, and it may be quite a long time, for not only are the Russians somewhat dilatory negotiators, but the Persians themselves (as the directors of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company could testify) can, on occasions, spin out discussions over months, or even years. Russia has begun the current discussions with a certain éclat by releasing some members of the Persian Army who had been shanghaied across the frontier and for whose return the Persians had been pressing. Whether Russia will follow up this good- neighbourly gesture by releasing any of the Persian gold which she also abducted some years ago, and still holds, is more debatable. Quite probably she will, for the chances are that she is prepared to pay a high price for thwarting the western orientation which the Persian seven-year plan, now at last beginning to get under way, has been obliged to take ; it is also not inconceivable that Russia would like to frustrate the conclusion of a new concession for the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, which still hangs fire, and that she believes there is more chance to achieve this end by negotiation than by bluster.
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