KIEL TO CO NS TA NTrNOPLE.
[TO THE EDITOR OF THE "SPECTATOR."]
Six,—About a month ago you were good enough to print in the columns of the Spectator some observations which, together with particulars that had come under my notice in the foreign Press, might, I thought, be worth the considera- tion of Englishmen. The events of the past few weeks may now, perhaps, justify me in once more touching on the same subject, since it would seem during the interval to have advanced at all events a stage nearer "materialisation."
When the appointment of Herr von Kiderlin-Wachter to the German Foreign Office became known, it was taken to mean that some corrective was deemed necessary to a certain official slackness in that Department of the Ministry. Kiderlin-Wachter's name had been mentioned a year ago in connexion with the Chancellorship, but those best versed in these matters had already then " cast " him in their minds for another part,—the one which he now fills. Now it happens that Herr von Kiderlin-Wachter, who enjoys a greater measure of his Imperial master's confidence than do most Prussian Ministers, is an enthusiastic advocate of a closer relationship between Turkey, Roumania, and the Triplice, so that the taking of this predilection into consideration, along with the presence of the new German Foreign Secretary in Marienbad what time Graf Aehrenthal and the Turkish Grand Vizier were also visiting the Bohemian waters, cannot but serve to impress the most casual onlooker. Indeed, although the political season, so to speak, has as yet hardly commenced as far as the great public is concerned, the activities of the leading actors have been ceaseless, almost ominously so.
Particular interest must attach to the Salzburg interview, since, in spite of all official comments on this meeting of Count Aehrenthal and Italy's representative of foreign affairs, the Austrian attitude has, if anything, become less guardedly anti-Italian than heretofore, so much so that I notice in an Austrian Army paper a direct appeal to put an end to an Alliance which, while probably always distasteful, has now become intolerable to both " contracting parties." Austria, in fact, sees the advisability of being "off with the nld love " before she is " on with the new " ; nor does she make the least concealment of who that "new love" is to be, and Danzer's Armee Zeitung is once again estimating what value the " dowry " Turkey may bring with her will prove as weighed against certain assets which are distinctly in Italy's favour. Thus they dwell with approval on the energy and spirit of willing sacrifice evinced by New Turkey in the efforts to reorganise her Army and Navy, reiterating the sincere friendships entertained by both Austria and Germany for the reborn State, which they aver would have been utterly unable to weather the blast of countless and ever-recurring conflicts had it not been that the beneficent neutrality of her two strong friends had tended to ease the strain.
In the course shaped by the Cretan trouble, and in
"the more than doubtful attitude then taken by the Protective Powers, it became obvious to Turkey where she would have to look to find her true friends," observes this journal, "and it need, therefore, give rise to no astonishment if Turkey, when it came to a matter of shielding those labours of pacification, the results of so great a sacrifice in blood and money, against the onslaught of external foes, should have felt her way towards an understanding with Roumania and the Powers of Central Europe in order to provide herself with allies, who, quite apart from their hitherto disinterested attitude towards the Ottoman Empire, are neverthe- less linked to her by a bond of common interests."
And it is then pointed out that the "coming into being of an Alliance which should extend from Kiel to Constantinople would act as a strong wall to separate Russia from her Western allies, while forcing the smaller Balkan States into peaceable behaviour by holding them, as it were, in a `cleft stick,' " that pleasant instrument being constructed of Austria-Hungary on the one side, and Turkey and Roumania on the other. Indeed, the whole matter seems now to turn, not so much on how Turkey will act (that would seem a foregone conclusion), but which side Roumania and Italy will elect to throw in their lot with, for, as the Vienna paper in question very truly points out, the spot where, geographically speaking, this rampart of allied forces would be at its weakest is just where Roumania lies along-shore of the Black Sea alert and watchful.
Hitherto, of course, the Russian Fleet has practically had
it its own way in these waters. As soon, however, as a modern Turkish Fleet' can here assert itself, Russia would
no longer be able to call Roumania "to heel." At least, though she might call, Roumania might elect to follow a different policy, and not choose to come.
Then there is Italy. The Alliance with Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire has undoubtedly enabled Italy to feel her feet, as it were, while giving her time to recover financially. Her Army as well as her Navy has developed amazingly during this period, which has nevertheless served in no way to reconcile her to trans-Alpine allies ; indeed, Austrians would have it that Irredentism is being systemati- cally fostered within the interior of the country ; while as to her foreign policy, this, according to the Armee Zeitung,
"has taken the form of making preparations anticipatory of the command of the Adriatic, while, moreover, taking the precaution of being on the best of terms with all opponents of the Dual Monarchy. Should it, therefore, so happen that she withdrew from the Triple Alliance, her vacant place might be filled almost automatically."
Words could hardly speak plainer. At the same time, future developments of this alert and energetic diplomatic summer campaign of 1910 must, in the opinion of this journal, depend upon " Turkey being forced to have recourse to her sword as
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