Politics
Versions of victory
Over the past few days, ministers have begun to wear that rather solemn expression one puts on in order to stop oneself breaking out into a silly grin. The news is good, but it wouldn't do to spoil it by going about saying so. Dignity, quiet calm are required – in victory, magnanim- ity – extra quantities of magnanimity when victory is not yet assured. The Government now believes it will win the miners' strike, not in that dogged, almost abstract way in which any side in a battle believes that it will win, but in an active, concrete way.
Thanks to wild talk in the tea room of the House of Commons, journalists have caught the mood and are exchanging bets. A representative of a left-wing paper, eagerly in search of champagne, has chal- lenged me to wager him that the strike will be over by Christmas, and I have accepted. I think we may find ourselves wrangling about what we mean by 'over', and so I am not confident of my bottle. There could, for instance, be a period in which a majority of strikers was working and yet the Executive continued to declare that the strike was on. But I am confident that Mr Scargill will lose, and that that fact will soon be recognised, indeed emphasised, by his trade union colleagues.
Even when defeat is complete, the Gov- ernment will probably present a modest front to the world. There will be statesmanlike talk about 'putting all that behind us', rebuilding, bridge-building, fence-mending – all the healing arts of the political engineer. But when they have locked the door and drawn the curtains and are among friends (or rather, colleagues), the Conservatives will behave like the Drones Club on Boat Race night. For the miners, the Tories' worst enemy, will have fallen. As the soft-boiled eggs hit the fan, as bread rolls fly and younger members swing from chandeliers, who will be chaired aloft, toasted and made much of?
Mrs Thatcher, of course, will expect and be given much of the credit. Victory will confirm her in her belief that her deter- mination is unflinching, and that it is to that determination that the nation owes its salvation. This description of events will be accepted by the Left, which has an ex- aggerated respect for the Prime Minister as a monster of unique strength. But, unlike the case of the Falklands, from which no Wet was able to extract any glory, the miners' strike will be taken by those who wish to as proof of the virtue of pragmat- ism, compassion, social concern and simi- lar qualities for which Mr Peter Walker wishes to be famous.
This is the Walkerian argument: The Government embroiled itself in the strike by giving Mr MacGregor a free hand with the coal industry. Its hard-faced industrial policies made it possible for Mr Scargill, who would otherwise have had no pretext, to get most of his members out. If right- wing hotheads had had their way, nothing would have been conceded to the miners, and the strike would have hardened. As it was, the instransigence and bungling of Mr MacGregor over the dealings with Nacods nearly cost the Government victory. With- out the restraining hand and pacific speeches of Mr Walker, without his calm- ness and his good relations with the press, the Government would have entrenched itself and the strike would have continued indefinitely. In particular, the Government would have encouraged the nationalised industries to use the civil law against the NUM, and then Nottinghamshire would have gone out and so would the lights.
One suspects that historians will be able to reconcile the two versions. It is true, for example, that Mr Walker has been adroit in public relations, and has done particu- larly well at holding the hands of bishops and others who were getting nervous at the violence and length of the strike. It is true that he could trumpet the Government's amazing concessions with a clear conscience, since he never has any objec- tion to spending public money. On the other side, it is hard to believe that a Prime Minister of a more conciliatory stamp than this one would ever have dared to state publicly that coal, like other industries, should aim to be an economically sensible industry. No Walker would have taken on the present task, and so, if he had found himself landed with a strike nonetheless, no important principle would have res- trained him from giving in with whatever grace he could command. It may look rather threadbare, but Mrs Thatcher will be able to claim when everything is over that the principles which she upheld throughout are intact. The Government governs, the police police, and coal should not cost quite so much per ton. Besides, with her usual luck, Mrs Thatcher found herself opposed by a man so implacable that he drove her party's Left and Right together. No Wet can afford to be Wet about picket violence; no Dry dared be too Dry about the future of the villages which have been rent by the strike. Victory will therefore contain something for everybody in the Tory Party. Mrs Thatcher will be more secure in her hold on the leadership, Mr Walker advanced in his bid for it.
So it is not obvious that victory will modify government policy. One cannot see, for example, why the Government should revise its view of industrial rela-
tions. Although the Earl of Stockton, holding up an imaginary onion to the eyes of his fellow peers on Tuesday, described the miners as the men who took on the armies of Hitler and the Kaiser, this strike has confirmed the trend — visible in almost every dispute over the past five years — for workers to consult their own interest rather than be conscripted into the wars proposed to them by their official leaders. If the miners, of all workers, cannot organise a solid strike, who can? Policies which ex- tend balloting, reduce immunities and give employers and union members redress in the courts look more practical, and more necessary, than ever. The more painful questions concern the nationalised industries. If you think, as the Government does, that nationalised indus- tries should be run as businesses, it follows that you should appoint people who will do just that, and you should leave them alone. The trouble is that in the intervening period between the appointment and pro- fitability (a period which, in an industry as unprofitable as coal, may intervene for a century), the political problems which sur- round the industry become acute. The Government then finds itself pushed int° deciding matters which it is its whole aim to put outside politics. Mr MacGregor was appointed to depoliticise coal, a process which, unfortunately, is as political as can be. This, and not his blob-like appearance on television is really why Mr MacGregor has been so fiercely attacked. He is the agent of the Government, but an agent ditched, as it were, behind enemy lines. His mission is too important to be dropped and yet government attempts to rescue hint cause political embarrassment. All the more reason, then, to unravel the skein which knits up industries with 'social' considerations. Try, wherever possible, to identify bits which can work without VV. ernment, and allow them to do so. Convert the remaining government interests in businesses into those of shareholders wh° want dividends rather than social engineers who want to invent or reinvent `communi- ties'. That will be Mrs Thatcher's instinct. To which Mr Walker will reply that the strike has taught us the vital importance of 'social cohesion' and that the price of restructuring publicly owned companies is too great. The natural compromise to emerge from this clash of economic and political opinions will be that run-down will be preferred to reform. The Thatchers and Walkers will readily agree that the easiest thing is to have a coal industry too unim- portant to cause trouble again. If the Sizewell inquiry is successfully completed, the Government will rush ahead with conversion to nuclear power. It will import more coal, and rely on less of the stuff for electricity or anything else. Then Mr Scar -
gill's prophecies of destruction will have come true; like most prophets, he has done his best to make sure that they will.
Charles Moore
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