An eastern Helsinki?
Richard West
oth optimists and pessimists about the
future of Hong Kong could well take a look at the recent history of Finland. The question is whether Communist China in 1997, when Hong Kong reverts to it by an ancient treaty, will establish a Marxist government or will leave in place the present capitalist system, in order to share in the wealth. The position of Hong Kong in 1997 is similar in many ways to that of Finland vis a vis Communist Russia in 1945.
Hong Kong and Finland both have a population of around five million. Most of the people of both are anti-communist and want an open system of justice, informa- tion and government. Hong Kong was part of imperial China; Finland was part of imperial Russia from 1815 to 1918. Both Hong Kong and Finland are militarily at the mercy of a neighbour. It is true that Hong Kong is much more vulnerable be- cause Victoria Island depends on the main- land for water, though nevertheless the British in 1941 fought harder against the Japanese in Hong Kong than in Malaya, which was defensible. It is true that the Finns gave Russia a bloody nose in the Winter War of 1939-40 and still have a strong defensive army, but they know that they could not long hold out against the might of the Red Army.
Indeed Finland's sovereignty is to some extent limited by the terms of the peace treaty with Russia after the second world war, in which Finland had fought both the Germans and Russians but ended up, ; '1 knew this when ix was all houses.'
technically, on the losing side. Finland is bound not to join in a military pact like Nato, or even the Common Market. There is an unwritten rule in Finland that politi- cians and public people do not abuse the Soviet Union. Finland turns back almost all the refugees it catches escaping from Russia, as Hong Kong returns the swim- mers from China. However, Finland is not subjected to much political pressure from the Soviet Union. Even the large Finnish Communist Party does not always take the Russian line.
The political tone of Finland and Hong Kong are probably not of much concern to their neighbours. A country like China,.of 1,000 million people, or even the Soviet Union, with a mere 250 million, will not feel ideologically threatened by five million people; or at least their heresy can .be excused, at a price, just as Christian Europe during the Middle Ages was ready to give a conditional tolerance to the Jev•rs' For just this reason the Russians continue to tolerate their capitalist neighbour F10- land.
The decision by Russia not to commit' nise Finland in 1945 is all the more strange since Finland, unlike Poland, had fought on the other side in the war. The economic terms of the peace treaty were drawn up as a punishment for the Finns. They were made to pay 'reparations' for losses incur' red by the Russians when they invaded, Finland in 1939. When the 'reparations had been paid off, the Finns were still bound to the Soviet Union under a trade, agreement that called for a balance ot imports and exports giving Russia a guarantee of high quality goods and set. vices that did not have to be paid for with hard currency. The ingenuity of the Finns and the strength of their economic systern have turned what was meant as a punish" ment into a source of profit. The trade agreement has given the Finns, access to an immense Soviet markei starved of goods and services by socialisro, bureaucracy and ancient Russian incomPe- tence. Because of their common climate, the Finns are in a position to furnish the Russians with what might be called Are.tic technology, especially with ice-breakiq ships. Finnish construction companies gel lucrative contracts to build north Russiao factories, plants, even whole towns. Their timber, paper and pulp technology is, of course, decades ahead of the Russians'. The Helsinki department store, Stock- mann, sells consumer goods not only to the Moscow diplomatic community but to the Russian boss class of bureaucrats, army officers and policemen. A Stockmann vacuum cleaner is still an object of fairy- tale wonder to Soviet housewives using the besom.
For a decade or so, it seemed that the fifty-fifty trade agreement was benefiting the Russians more than the Finns, who had to shop in the Russian market. Then came the world-wide fuel crisis of 1973. The Russians were willing and eager to pay their part of the trade in crude oil. The Finns bought more than their own require- ment, refined the rest and resold it abroad at a profit. Finland, like Hong Kong, has prospered as a pilot fish to the Communist whale. Like Hong Kong, Finland has used its position next to a Communist country to build up sales in the capitalist West. Just as Hong Kong now owns more merchant ships than Britain herself, so Finland has outstripped Britain in building ships.
P & O's new giant luxury liner the Royal Princess, which was due to be named on Thursday by Princess Diana, was built in Helsinki. Like Hong Kong, Finland is virtually free of trade union wreckers, restrictive practices, overmanning and strikes. Like Hong Kong, which Ken Livingstone described as 'a rat-race', Fin- land arouses the jealous rage of the British Left, and also of the British capitalist class.
British shipbuilders, constantly whining for state support, are infuriated to find that the Finnish government gives no subsidy to its shipbuilding industry. Like Hong Kong, Finland does not subscribe to modish slogans such as 'consensus politics', 'the compassionate society', 'helping the Third World' and similar humbug.
Can Hong Kong become another Hel- sinki? Its task ought to be easier, since Communist China is already far more pragmatic and less ideologically rigid than Communist Russia. Shanghai already has a partially mixed economy. In Macao, the Portuguese colony south of Hong Kong, some of the most powerful men are at the same time Peking Communist dignitaries and millionaire entrepreneurs.
Perhaps because we fear and detest communism, we overestimate its powers of survival. The enthusiasm that once in- spired it has almost everywhere died out. It hangs on because of the entrenched power of the military, the police and the bureaucracy. Its grip on Russia may have something to do with that country's tradi- tional love of despotism. The Chinese have an ancient and great civilisation, whose strength will outlast such petty and tran- sient warlords as Mao Tse Tung. Of course things might go bad for Hong Kong if China fell victim again to the kind of mass hysteria that inspired the Cultural Revolu- tion. But best, Hong Kong could become an eastern Helsinki.
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