Commonwealth and Foreign
WHITHER ROlUIVIANIA ?
By G. 0. GARDENER [The Roumanian General Election will begin on Monday, December 2oth.) FOR four years a Liberal Government, headed by Mr. Tatarescu, has ruled in Roumania. When the former leader of the Liberal Party, Duca, was shot by the " Iron Guard," the King called Tatarescu to take the helm. In doing so he hoped to confuse and possibly split the Liberal Party, the stronghold of the banking and industrial circles, for many decades led by the Bratianu family. The plan had some success. Dinu Bratianu and his followers came into conflict with some of the younger leaders, who sided with Tatarescu, and during Tatarescu's premiership friction within the Liberal ranks became more and more bitter.
The Liberals experienced the same trouble that formerly befell the National Peasant Party, a combination of the Peasant Party of pre-War Roumania and the Roumanian Nationalist party of Transylvania led by Maniu, the advocate of the Roumanian cause in the Hungarian Parliament. The Peasant Party has always had a democratic, but in some ways nationalistic, outlook, trying to push to the front the interests of the peasants who constitute almost four-fifths of the population.
Their leader, Maniu, who brought the present King back to the throne, wished the country to become a constitutional monarchy. The King, eager to establish a personal autocracy supported by the army, was opposed to this idea and managed to find a successor within the ranks of Maniu's own party, Vaida-Voivod. Continuous strife within the Peasant Party was the unfortunate result, and finally Vaida founded his own party, the " Roumanian Front," with leanings towards the Right. The two old and strong parties of Roumania had, therefore, been split by the King's manoeuvres.
No party can persist in Roumania unless it some time comes into power, because it is out of the spoils of office that the personnel of the parties get their living. So it happens that the old parties lost part of their grip on the population and, the economic crisis playing havoc with large sections of the people, new movements sprang up on the Right. The King looked with favour upon them in the hope of getting their assistance in breaking up the old parties which worked on democratic principles. Tatarescu, the henchman of the King, gave his Government more and more a leaning towards the Right, and in particular Inculez, vice-Premier up to 1936, had strong affiliations with the anti-democratic groups.
Everything went well from the King's point of view till last year the " Iron Guard " staged a public funeral for two of its members who had died fighting for Franco in Spain. A huge crowd took part in a procession led by well-trained storm- troopers through the streets of Bucharest. Their leader was Codreanu, who used to ride on a white horse and in national costume through the small Roumanian villages in order to appeal to the superstitious feelings of the peasants. On this occasion he was greeted by the crowd with hysterical devotion. Then the King realised the danger lying ahead. Having set successfully party against party and leader against leader in order to win for himself the decisive and autocratic position, he had over-reached himself. A new force had appeared which threatened the foundations of his position. He came to see that loyalty towards a king, soaked as it is with devotion of a religious kind, might be, and had to a certain extent already been turned into, superstitious attachment imbued with hysteria, towards a party leader.
At first, the King thought of separating the Tatarescu Cabinet from the fascist movements, and Inculez was pushed into the background. However, it was too late. The municipal elections which were held at different times during the year clearly showed that the Peasant Party was still the strongest in the country, but that the different Fascist parties had succeeded in winning considerable support. It was quite obvious that the majority of the nation did not approve of the Tatarescu Cabinet of royal favour.
According to constitutional conventions, Tatarescu had to give up his premiership in November. The king had to find a new premier who would have also the confidence of the nation. He called Mihalache, leader of the Peasant Party, which had given him the leadership after Maniu, because he was still on good terms with the King. Mihalache had to refuse the task on account of the conditions which the King put forward in accordance with his established policy, and also resigned the party leadership to Maniu. The King then had no other choice but to ask Tatarescu again together with Vaida-Voivod and Prof. Jorga, these three men being probably the only important leaders who had kept their loyal feelings towards the King.
It is a well-known fact that Roumanian polls are held under peculiar conditions, the government in power bringing all sorts of pressure to bear upon the electorate. However, this time it is not quite certain that these influences will succeed in swinging the vote, and whatever the outcome may be, one thing is sure : Roumania has come to the parting of the ways.
First, domestic politics have developed in such a way that the King's person has become involved. The Peasant Party under the leadership of his old opponent Maniu, as well as the Fascist groups of different shades, are opposed to his policy. This, naturally, does not mean to say that the King would have to leave the country a second time, if his adversaries carried the election. But it will create a delicate situation, the only way out of which might appear to be for the King to re- model the Constitution. This result is the more to be regretted, as the King obviously holds ideas the realisation of which could only be to the good of the whole country. It is suffering fundamentally from an inefficient and corrupt bureaucracy which traditionally makes its living by graft. If this system could be done away with, considerable improvements in the whole economic and social structure of the country might be achieved. On the other hand, these administrative reforms could hardly be made without the collaboration of the whole nation, because they must be preceded by a new tax- system which would allow a rise in the salaries paid to the officials.
Secondly, one may safely say that Roumania will turn to a definitely more Fascist policy. As for Tatarescu, his record in this respect is clear, and the combination with Vaida, Germany's friend, and Jorga, Italy's friend, will only strengthen this tendency. On the other hand, however, even Maniu dearly indicated in his election speeches that he is himself thinking of a similar course, and though rather weak, his affiliation with the Fascist parties and Codreanu in the present election reveals that he is considering such a policy seriously. To under- stand that, one has to remember what has been said about his previous experiences and the wide gulf that opened between the King and himself.
Thirdly, a strong anti-semitic tendency will in all likeli- hood appear after the election, whatever the government may be. All the parties take this line during the present campaign, and it is very much to be feared that latcr deeds will follow words.
To venture any prophecy regarding the future foreign policy of Roumania would be too risky as long as the future position of Titulescu is not established. As he, too, has had quarrels with the King, he is strongly on the side of the opposition for the time being. One might, however, expect that Roumania will try, as it has already done for some time, to keep aloof from definite engagements in order to bid for time.
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