RUSSIA, POLAND, AND LITHUANIA.
rr HE terms of Peace arranged between Russia and
Poland are, whatever else may be said about them, an undoubted sign of weakness and war-weariness in Bolshevik Russia. We have so often been told that Bolshevism was at the point of death, only to find that it not merely rallied, but showed signs of vigorously prolonging its evil life, that we must receive with great caution all similar predictions. For all that, facts are facts, and the Bolsheviks would not have agreed to give terms—advan- tageous terms—to Poland if they had any longer felt capable of Bolshevizing Warsaw. It is not as though they had suddenly forsworn aggression in principle ; we know that their propaganda, framed with the intention of pulling down foreign governments, is going on as actively as ever. This special form of aggression was one of the points discussed in the diplomatic correspondence between Lord Curzon and M. Krassiu—we call it a "diplomatic correspondence," but it might with almost equal truth be called a slanging match. The Bolsheviks, then, we may take it, agreed to terms which would not have been dreamed of six months ago, not because they wanted to agree, but because they were compelled. Experience still suggests that the Bolsheviks may be drawing back only in order to leap better. Every one will remember how thou forces concentrated against Admiral Koltchak wad mean- while allowed General Denikin to advance merrily. Many people thought that General Denikin was about to pull Bolshevism out of the saddle, but the appearance was entirely deceptive. No sooner had Admiral Koltehak's army been shattered than General Denikin's turn came, and he was driven into the sea. If that strategy was a foretaste of what the Bolsheviks hope to do now, it may be that they are making a quick and handsome peace with Poland only in order to concentrate against General Wrangel.
Competent judges think that General Wrangel is much the ablest opponent of the Soviet Government who has yet appeared. At least it may be said that he has state- craft as well as military skill. He has concentrated his political attention on the fact that over 80 per cent. of Russians are peasants. If, he argues, he can coax the peasant on to his aide there need be no limit to what he may be able to accomplish. On the other hand, it must not be forgotten that Lenin has been shrewd enough to leave the peasants to their own devices. In theory they are no longer owners of land, but in practice they are left in possession, with their agricultural peace disturbed only by the incursion of armed workmen from the towns when they refuse to sell their corn in accordance with the Soviet tariff. A consideration of the new military lines, however, will show that General Wrangel's influence is no longer to be measured by his small forces and his own particular line stretching from Alcxandrovsky to the Sea of Azoff. He now has friends. He has made a compact with the Ukrainian National Committee, and if the Ukrainians turn out after all to be genuinely anti-Bolshevik, they will easily fill the gap between General Wrangel's line and the long line held further north by the Poles. Thus for about 1,000 miles, from Lithuania to the Sea of Azoff, there would be a coherent anti-Bolshevik line. '
Although the Peace Terms between the Bolsheviks and Poland give Poland a great extension of territory, it cannot reasonably be said that the Poles have demanded. such rapacious terms as might have been justified on the old-fashioned scale by their recent military successes. We are not at all sure, however, that Poland is wise to go considerably beyond the limits of the Curzon line. For one thing the new Polish frontier, instead of leaving Lithuania as a buffer State between Poland and Bolshevik Russia, will now bring Poland right up to the doors of her worst enemies, the Bolsheviks. Poland will touch both Bolshevik Russia and Latvia. If Poland receives is fresh outlet on the Baltic, because she is placed on the Dvina which flows down to Riga, the Bolsheviks have also several causes for satisfaction as they are guaranteed communication by land with Germany and the whole West. Nevertheless, the friends of Poland have no sooner begun to rejoice than they are alarmed by the episode, lull of risks and dangers, which has occurred at Vilna. Without for a moment excusing the action of General Zeligowski in occupying Vilna with his White Ruthenian Division, one can perfectly well understand how and, why it happened. The Lithuanians have long been playing an in-and-out game with the Bolsheviks ; there can be little doubt that, while professing neutrality, they have helped the Bolsheviks again and again when the Poles were in adversity. When, therefore, the Polish line was rushed forward duringthe recent astonishing reversals of fortune, General Zeligowski no doubt felt that he had a good many old scores to pay oft against the Lithuanians and their town of Vilna. Moreover, the population of Vilna is half Polish—we have seen the percentage of Poles in Vilna placed as high as 49 per cent.—and the civilization of the town is wholly Polish. All the more reason for General Zeligowski to resent the stab in the back. The rather shadowy State of Lithuania has enjoyed, under the re- arrangement of the Baltic Provinces, what may be described as an historical rather than an ethnographic reconstruction. As long ago as the later part of the fourteenth century Lithuania was a separate State, but in that misty past she joined her fortunes with those of Poland and did not emerge again as an independent State till after the Russian Revolution. The Poles, remembering that the Lithuanians had been for centuries part of Poland, that they owe all the arts and graces of life to Polish instruction, and that in these latter days they, or at least some of them, had helped the Bolsheviks to murder Poles and to steal their property, saw red. Probably a large part of the motive behind the occupation of Vilna was the motive of reprisal.
Nevertheless, we sincerely hope that the correct attitude of the Polish Government in expressing disapproval of General Zeligowski's action may be taken at its literal value. Vilna must not become another Fiume ; Zeligowski must not become another D'.Annurtzio. The Poles are an able, artistic, arid idealistic people, but they are not famed for judgment in practical matters, and it must be the duty of all their friends now to remind them of the necessity of extreme care. They owe caution not only to them- selves but to the world. Of course, it is tempting to people who are in such an exultant frame of mind as the Poles are now to make play with the jumbled situation in the Baltic Provinces. T,hey could argue with a good deal of truth that Lithuania is in essence Polish. The important thing, however, to remember is that self-determination could never be a more ambiguous doctrine than it is along the Polish frontier. We should be sorry indeed to have to apply self-determination there according to racial statistics with any sort of logic or justice. In one sense Vilna, Kovno, and Grodno are all Polish ; in another sense they are not Polish because the population does not show an absolute majority of Poles ; and yet neither Lithuanians nor Jews separately can equal the number of Poles. It is much better to admit that in such bewildering circum- stances self-determination can never be accurately applied, and that is all about it. The attempt to apply self- determination with logic would be a terrible danger in itself. It would lead to a reproduction of such evils as used to be familiar in the Balkans when every State was trying to prove that its nationals were in a majority in a particular district and produced the proof' partly by cooking statistics, partly by bribery, and partly by adjust- ing the numbers with the kindly aid of massacre. At a time when Great Britain cannot afford to undertake a single military adventure which she can reasonably avoid outside her borders, it would be madness for Poland, half- ruined as she is and weakened by the ravages of typhus, to undertake vainglorious enterprises. Lithuania has appealed to the League of Nations. We hope that the League will settle this matter if there should be any delay.
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