THE FUTURE OF GERMANY. T HE terms of the armistice are
not a whit more severe than Germany must have expected. In some minor respects they were slightly modified at the last moment on the side of leniency. Nothing less than the terms as they stand would have guaranteed the military incapacity of Germany. Decent Germans themselves have reason to be as thankful as anybody that the firebrands of their country are not placed physically in the position of being able to renew the struggle. They are relieved of all temptation. In the great crash of the German Empire it is difficult indeed to foresee what is going to happen. The events are so tremendous that at the moment it is impossible to appreciate them. As Frederic Myers wrote in his well-known. St. Paul :— " Lo, if some strange intelligible thunder
Bang to the earth the secret of a star, Scarce could you catch for terror or for wonder Threads of the story that was pealed so far."
The thunder may be intelligible, but we are all so overwhelmed with wonder that we cannot piece the story together. There seems to be no doubt, however, that the future of Germany is to be Republican. As the whole is greater than the part, so does the example of Prussia order the course for all the other States of the broken German Empire. Yet it is ardently to be hoped that, though Prussia is the great exemplar, the virus of Prussian arrogance and usurped leadership may be removed from the German Federation—if indeed it is to remain a Federation. There is no more awful object in history than the misuse of Prussian science, brains, and learning. It was reserved for Prussia first to thrust her hegemony upon the German world, and next to make an attempt upon the liberties of the outer world in a spirit of perverted morality to which there is no parallel. w hen Greece withstood the onrush of the Persians, the issue was notdisguised ; and Greece saved for the Western world the artistic learning and social science upon which our civilization is largely based. The effort of Islam to conquer the world for the creed of Mohammed was perfectly open. By comparison with what the Germans have tried to do, it was a respectable adventure. Napoleon, again, even while he tried to tie the world to his military chariot, observed most of the customs and decencies of war on the field. It was Prussia which invented the plan of pretending to act as a Christian Power while practising the most disgraceful and unabashed atrocities. Taught by Bismarck, she brought to a fine art the method of making the worse appear the better cause, of pretending that her victims had forced her reluctantly to take action, and of appealing to God as her judge and support. All that is now ended, but the first thing to say about the future of the new Germany is that all trace of this Prussianism must disappear even in the intellectual sphere. The new States will be tested thereby.
The central political fact in Germany is that the two Socialist Parties have formed a Coalition under the Chancellorship of Herr Ebert. The Majority Socialists, who of course till the end of the war stood by the Government and played a part which in Germany was no doubt described as moderate," recommend a political semi-comprehensiveness that would not bar the bourgeoisie. They mean to have not merely a Republic but a Socialist Republic, yet they regard the bourgeois as an outwork and pledge against any advance on the part of Bolshevism. The more rigorous Minority Socialists, among whom are many " Revisionists " of the Marxian doctrines, may or may not be able to work long with the Majority, but it is at all events certain that while both or either remain in power Prussia will be a Republic. But then we have to reckon with that extraordinary and shadowy body known as the Soldiers' and Workmen's Council. The very name, with its Russian associations, suggests at least a possibility of Bolshevism. It must be remembered that in Russia the Revolution began in an orderly enough manner, not only with little bloodshed, but with Rousseau-like pro- fessions of horror at the thought of bloodshed. Though the leaders of the combined German Socialist Parties form a Cabinet, the legislative power belongs to this Soldiers' and Workmen's Council, and will continue to belong to it till a Constituent Assembly is summoned and decides upon a Constitution. On the whole, we believe that the danger of Bolshevism is much less in Germany than it was in Russia. The formation of the Coalition is evidence of this. No such Coalition could be formed in Russia.
All who know Bavaria would agree that there are intensely conservative elements in that State, as always happens where a large proportion of the less instructed part of the popula- tion is Roman Catholic in faith. Before the Prussian virus infected the whole nation, and Prussian professions spread far and wide their sham philosophical doctrines of the beauty and splendour of German might, the Bavarians had many quiet and amiable traits of character. It is in truth in com- paratively small communities, and not in a huge welded organization, tliat the German character has its best chance of redemption. But here it must be said that the principle of self-determination which we have all accepted- leaves the Germans perfectly free to constitute their new polity as they think fit. They can remain in separate States or be a Federa- tion of Republican States, just as they choose. If the Germans of Austria decide to link their fortunes with all the other Germans, there would be a German Federation of something like seventy million people. It might be said, and probably is being said, that this would be too powerful a nation for the safety of Europe. But in the circumstances we hold this to be an inadmissible argument. We must look not to the size but to the character of States in the general reconstruction. On the whole, we believe that all the German States will federate sooner or later, and provided that they conduct themselves as decently as we hope they will, now that the militaristic autocracy has been smashed, we can honestly say for our part that the more successful the new Germany is the better we shall be pleased. It is a fundamental economic mistake to suppose that because our neighbours are prosperous we are thereby made poorer. The more money our neigh- bours have for buying our goods, the better for us. Commer- cial and political weakness in others is not at all what we should aim at.
In this connexion we must say a word about the revictualling of Germany during the next few weeks. We cannot fathom the meaning of those who pretend that this is no part of the Allies' business. To look at it from the most material point of view, it is surely plain that unless Germany is helped back to such a state of bodily health that she can work hard and again make money rapidly, she will not be able to pay the enormous debt that she owes to the world. The debt of reparation must be paid to the uttermost penny, and to refuse Germany the means of doing this is to defeat our own policy, and to invent a new version of killing the goose that laid the golden eggs. But if the argument that the Allies have not the wherewithal to help the German population, or have not the duty to go to the rescue, is indefensible, so equally is the argument of Dr. Solf that the Allies are behaving inhumanely to Germany in seizing so much of her means of transport. Nothing is more certain than that this transport will be used to better purpose by the Allies than it could be by the Germans in their disordered condition. How far and how long the rescue work of the Allies will have to proceed it is impossible to predict at present ; but we should not be at all surprised if the occupation of the Rhineland by troops of the Associated nations had to con- tinue longer than is now contemplated. This might well be in the interest of Germany herself. Although the Germans had beaten France decisively in 1870, they did not evacuate French soil till 1873. If such a thing should be necessary, no troops could do the work better, or with more satisfactoa to all the Entente nations, than the American Army. The Americans are far less exhausted than any other of the Associated nations, and we should all count ourselves lucky if the American Army were willing to accept the task in the event of things going badly wrong in Germany.
Previous page
