TOPICS OF THE DAY.
RUMOURS AND SPECULATIONS.
NOTWITHSTANDING the pregnant character of the Corn Bill as it respects the future state of parties and government in this coun- try, even the liveliest politicians ceased to speculate upon its con- sequences during its recent stoppage by the Irish Coercion Bill; but the removal of this obstruction to Sir Robert Peel's great measure has reawakened the slumbering spirit of conjecture, set agoing all sorts of rumours, and restored speculative prediction to the activity which it manifested six weeks ago. Sober ob- servers, however, may be excused for doubting whether the time has yet come, whether the materials are yet sufficient, for forming a sound judgment on the probable results of the Corn Bill on the government of this country. But at any rate that time is fast approaching; the facts which must influence the future are grow- ing apace ; and all men's thoughts are occupied with the sub.. ject. We have therefore thought it worth while to collect a number of the rumours and speculations now afloat, and to offer on each of them a few remarks.
The first in the order of time and immediateimportance is, that the Corn Bill, having been read a second time in the House of Lords, will be altered in Committee by some amendment of the nature of a fixed duty. This is possible' nay, on one condition, not impro- bable. The condition is, that Lord Stanley shall be prepared to succeed Sir Robert Peel as Prime Minister, and form an Admini- stration on the principle of fixed-duty protection. Perhaps ; for his opposition to the Corn Bill, unless it went this length,. would be only a sham for the purpose of preserving a decent consistency with his late resignation' its merely personal or selfish object would be seen ; and even the Protectionists would join the rest of the world in the belief with respect to Lord Stanley, that he is but a flashy pretender, incapable of doing; whose powers of ac- tion have been absorbed in the one faculty of speaking ; and who is really as much afraid of responsibility, as he is ever eager to put on an appearance of courting and defying it : so that if Lord Stanley's opposition should not be real, (and real nobody will deem it unless he sincerely aim at incurring the responsibility of upholding the principle of protection as Minister,) all men will concur in the pretty general opinion, that the author of the Canada Corn Act, who made something like a Free-trade speech at Liverpool within the last two years, did not retire from the Colonial Office from dislike to free trade, but from a dread of coming discussions on his administration of Colonial affairs: so that, in the case supposed, this proud, pugnacious, dashing, chi- valrous Prince Rupert of modern politicians, as he aims to ap- pear, and as some still think him, would be found out by every- body, and would stand before the world as havino. deserted Sir Robert Peel for a purpose of his own totally different from the object he avowed; as a deserter of the Protectionists, whom ha has encouraged in their vigorous opposition to the Corn Bill; and, finally, as having been beaten out of office by the New Zea- land Company,. To such a man, such a prospect must be gall and wormwood. He must ardently long for the opportunity of making it appear that Colonial questions had nothing to do with his resignation. He must perceive (for he is far from deficient in a certain shrewdness) his own personal interest in behaving as if he deemed the repeal of the Corn-laws a measure fatal to the country, and therefore one which he ought to be ready to oppose as Minister. But, on the other hand, the sort of shrewdness just mentioned must have long since told him of his own incapacity for leading a Government ; and it may be supposed that his real fear of responsibility being constitutional, and therefore uncon- querable' however skilfully concealed under the appearance of an opposite disposition, will induce him, when it comes to the point, to let the Corn Bill pass uninjured. This is the conclusion to which our own opinion leans ; though we are not unconscious that even these remarks may tend the other way, by showing that if Lord Stanley could but muster courage to go in earnest for a Moderate-Protection Government, he would adopt the only means of hiding from public view the true cause of his retire- ment from the Colonial Office. Were we reproached with thus contributing to the turmoil which would ensue on the formation of a Protection Ministry with Lord Stanley at its head, we should say, that the truth comes first and then consequences ; and that possibly, considering the actual prospect supposing the Corn Bill to pass the Lords unmutilated, the country, might have a better Government next year after suffering a Stanley Ministry for some months, than it will get if Sir Robert Peel should carry the Corn Bill and than retire.
For, according to the next speculation Sir Robert Peel has conie to the determination that he will not Le turned out of office by a joint vote of Whigs and Protectionists in the Commons. It is said, that he has all along differed with some of his present colleagues with respect to the Sugar-duties; that he gave up his own opinion to them for the time, in order that the Cabinet Should be
united for the purpose of carrying the Corn Bill ; that when the Corn Bill shall be passed he will not propose the scheme now be- fore the public with respect to sugar, which he knows would be rejected by a large majority including the Protectionists, but will retire from office, on the ground that he is for free trade in sugar as well as corn; that he does not choose to repeat as re„o-ards sugar the dissolution and reconstruction of a Ministry, such as occurred at the end of last year ; and that as a Member of Parliament he will earnestly support any Ministry that may be formed on the principle of giving effect to his own views of free trade as to sugar. This prediction seems most likely to be verified. The Protec- tionists in the Commons are quite determined to turn out Peel, whether Lord Stanley in the Lords give them a loud and sham, or a quiet, determined, and effective support. The present Go- vernment, therefore, cannot stand. All the efforts of all the Liberal
admirers of Peel would not suffice to prevent repeated defeats of the Government upon all sorts of questions great and small.
There must be a new Government, probably within a month. Excepting always those who imagine that Lord Stanley will op- pose Free Trade in earnest, and that so we may have a Protection Ministry and a general election on the question of Free Trade, everybody seems persuaded that Lord John Russell will be "sent for " before the end of June.
But here opinions begin to differ again as much as the wishes of parties and individuals. What the Whig leader himself de- sires, he has been far from concealing. The inference to be drawn from what he did in December last is confirmed by the grudg- ing and querulous support which he has since given to Sir Robert Peel : he has no notion of a coalition or fusion of his own party with the Peelites, if it can by any means be avoided: he would repeat his last attempt, and would give us a Melbourne Ministry without Melbourne ; a Ministry composed almost entirely of aristocratic Whigs, formed on no principle but the supposed na- tural right of the great Whig families to govern this country, and depending for its existence on the disunion of its opponents, the proposal of Liberal measures for rejection by the Lords, and a repetition of "the Lichfield House compact." As if in polities the same thing could ever be done twice ! as if, out of the narrow circle in which the belief prevails that the natural order of things is disturbed whenever this country is not governed by the great Revolution families, anybody could be found with an appe- tite for such a dish as the Melbourne Ministry over again This wise speculation, however, is evidently Lord John Russell's own. For another scheme has been projected, to the furtherance of which he gives no help, and which he would surely adopt if be did not still cling to the notion that the order of nature is about to be restored by the reinstalment of Whig power. The sugges- tion is, that, Peel and Graham retiring to satisfy the vengeance of the Protectionists, a Government should be formed with Lord John Russell at its head, but comprising so many of Peel's friends as would enable the two Ex-Ministers to give their confidence and general support. The persons named as suitable colleagues of Lord John Russell are, Lord Dalhousie, Lord Lincoln, and Mr. Sidney Herbert. This would not be a Ministry of fusion, but a Ministry of preparation for fusion. It would be a transition Ministry; and, considering that whatever Ministry we may have next—whether purely Whig with Lord John for its chief, or purely Tory with Lord Stanley at its head, or mixed according to the suggestion under review—must necessarily be a transition Ministry, perhaps this mixed Ministry would be the very best that is attainable. We cannot, however, think it very probable. In order to bring it about, Lord John Russell must be persuaded to understand that half a loaf is better than no bread ; that it is wise to take all you can get when you can't get all you want ; that it is not in the order of Providence that England should be governed by certain Lords who were born in certain castles, abbeys, and great halls ; that Peel is a man whose confidence and support it is worth while to obtain by a sacrifice of party and personal jealousy ; and above all, that in the present disposition of the public mind, no Ministry can last that does not enjoy the confidence and support of the only living man of affairs who has shown himself capable of great practical statesmanship. To persuade Lord John Russell to believe all this' will be no easy task, let who may undertake it. And then Peel himself confounds one every now and then by such escapades as his declaration, the other night, that he would not alter the Catholic Relief Act. That saying of his has led to the remark, that as, after removing the disabilities of Dissenters and Roman Catholics, he seemed to dedontagtv• himself by falling mercilessly upon the poor Jews, so now, perhaps, after smashing monopoly, he will become for a time the champion of all the bigotry that his own liberal measures have left in this country. It may be that as Minister he would advance in the road of practicalreform where he is already the foremost of our public men ; but whether be would choose to give to Lord John Russell, or to anybody, a large share of the glory, is at any rate problematical. Lord John, being very help- less when he stands alone, may not improbably be schooled into taking a sensible course ; but Peel is a solitary creature, far less easy to handle by persons who on this point may be wiser than himself. Upon the whole, therefore, though a Ministry of pre- paration for fusion is what the country would choose, and is the only one likely to be capable of doing much at present, yet we cannot agree with those who are sanguine in expecting it.
Recurring for a moment to our own speculation on the 21st of March," we cannot help doubting whether matters are ripe for a Ministry of fusion either complete or partial. Fusion is pro- duced by fire ; and the fire of necessity, which alone can blend the fragments of party into a government representing the in- telligence and reforming or advancing dispositions of the great public, has not yet been felt. As yet it is only seen in speculation; and the nature of it is such that it must be severely felt before it becomes productive. Several attempts to carry on the Govern- ment without the fusion of parties may be made before the neces- sity of fusion shall be acknowledged. The necessity promises to
• "The Party of Sense and the Party of Nonsense." grow out of the helplessness of perhaps successive Administrations, formed without a policy—mere fillings-up of the offices without any set of principles to be carried into effect, or any sufficiency of practical measures to satisfy the public. The first failure may be a Stanley Ministry ; the most probable is perhaps an aristocratical Whig Ministry ; the most desirable as well as practicable, such a Ministry as Robert Peel and Richard Cobden would cordially support without being in office.
Previous page
