IS OUR TRADE PROSPEROUS? T HE Chancellor of the Exchequer, in
his speech at the London Chamber of Commerce, on Wednesday, ven- tured to say that, in spite of the so-called "ruin" of trade, ‘. if trade really means,—what, indeed, it does mean,—the exchange of commodities between people who have com- modities to part with and people who have commodities they desire to enjoy," there has not only been no ruin but no diminution of the bulk of our trade since the last period when we regarded our trade as really prosperous. Indeed, there has been a positive increase of the quantities of commodities exchanged between different classes of our own people and between our own people and the people of other lands, since the last period of so-called prosperity. What, then, do we mean by the ruin of trade ? We mean that though the total quantity of the commodities exchanged is not diminished,—and is even increased,—that quantity has to be divided amongst so greatly increased a number of persons, that it does not give the same share to each person that it gave before. Trade is prosperous when the greater number of traders receive a larger margin for each individual concerned in it, than they received before,—depressed when they receive the same or even a larger number of com- modities than they received before, but have so many more workers amongst whom to divide the proceeds, that there remains a less share for each. And, of course, the share which each individual worker gets must depend on the inventions or discoveries by which the reproductive powers of Nature are stimulated or apparently multiplied. After the invention of the steam- engine and its application to a multitude of new depart- ments of manufacture and distribution, there was a sudden increase in the total production and in the ease of dis- tribution which made almost every one feel that they themselves had not only more than they had before, but more for the rapidly multiplying number of those for whom they had to provide. And with every great dis- covery in the arts, especially every great discovery that economised a large number of manufacturing and dis- tributive agencies, this sense of the increasing ease of life grew larger. On the other hand, when the effect of all these inventions had nearly reached its limits, and the number of persons .waiting to be provided for had been increased, without any corresponding spring in the methods of satisfying their needs, the sense of pros- perity was on the decline ; and though the total number of commodities exchanged did not decline, or even increased, the share for each particular family engaged in producing them or in the machinery of their ex- change, appeared to be smaller, because it had to be divided between a larger number of claimants. It does not follow, then, that because the bulk of our trade, measured as the Chancellor of the Exchequer measures it, does not diminish, or even steadily increases from one period of prosperity to another of hardship, that the hardship is unreal. Prosperity is a term which implies a greater satisfaction for each of a steadily increasing number of wants. And if the wants increase more rapidly than the means for their supply, there is a sense of scarcity, even though the trade-returns show that the whole bulk of trade is larger than ever. Sir William Harcourt may be quite right in his optimism, because he may be able to show that as the arts multiply the facilities of production and distribution, it is not unreasonable to ex- pect those "leaps and bounds" by which one generation improves on the leaps and bounds of preceding generations; but still, expectations which are not unreasonable are very often disappointed, and just at present it is pretty certain that while agriculture in old countries is being superseded by the agriculture of new and richer regions, there has been no such new and sudden spring in the arts as would more than compensate for the paralysis of this great department of the industry of the most populous part of the civilised world. There is no use in pessimism which may mislead, and cannot possibly encourage, any one. But optimism which is too hopeful may mislead us equally. Still there can be no doubt that the Chancellor of the Exchequer is right in saying that labour on the whole, even in such an old country as ours, is much better paid than it was in what capitalists call the prosperous times ; that the labourer gets higher real wages, and generally indeed, higher money wages, than he did ; that the savings-banks are yearly increasing, even in propor- tion to the increased population ; and that a great deal of what the capitalist finds pressing hardest upon him is the consequence of the labourer having won a larger and, we may fairly say, a juster proportion of the product which the capitalist and the labourers unite to produce. The special hardship of these times touches the higher middle and manufacturing classes rather than the labouring classes. What is called the " tendencyof profits towards a minimum," really means the tendency of wages towards a maximum, and so long as that tendency is moderately and soberly regulated, the nation, on the whole, is the gainer, and not the loser. We are only approaching the position which Holland has long occupied without making much com- plaint. The middle-classes will more and more find the difficulty of providing their children with a satisfactory calling in life till the next great leap in the economy of the means of production takes place, and even then we must expect that the middle-class will not get the lion's share of the advantage, as they used to do, but will have to share the advantage frankly with the labourers they employ. We must not forget that the optimists in the estimate of trade prospects are not always right. From time to time great springs in the wealth of our national resources occur, but for long periods we look for them in vain. Population fills up the fresh room provided by any such great spring so rapidly, that we are hardly con- scious of its advantage before we begin to feel the old pressure anew. Just at present, in spite of all the marvels of scientific invention, they have been more exciting to the imagination, like the phonograph and the freezing of air, than stimulating to the general processes of production and distribution ; and though we are told that science seems to be just on the eve of some new and great discovery, we may have long to wait till it comes. In the meantime, while the labouring classes are certainly improving their condition, they are also showing signs of a perhaps too eager impatience to move faster than it is safe to move except on the morrow of some great discovery in the arts. If they quarrel too frequently with the capitalists they will severely injure themselves. Optimism derives its strongest argument just now from the state of the revenue which does not seem to show nearly as much diminution in the revenue even of the middle- classes, as their complaints would imply. At the same time, we must remember that the steady yield of the Income-tax, though it quite disproves the ruin of which pessimists talk, does not in the least disprove the increasing difficulty of providing for the new generation since the tax is levied on income without regard to the claims upon income. There seems to us to be on the whole little justification for either optimism or pessimism as regards trade prospects. The nation is doing a great trade,— greater than, with small exceptions, it has ever done before,—but not so great in proportion to its rapidly increasing population. There is an immediate prospect of still further decline in the yield of our agriculture, and as yet no immediate prospect of a compensating rise in the producing powers of manufacture and trade. Still, such prospects are never visible from afar, and they may appear at any moment. There is no excuse for pessimism, but there is not much for optimism,—for any optimism at least which would render us insensible to the duty of prudence, of forbearance, of moderation, in treating the difficulties between class and class. In the meantime, we can rejoice that the labouring class is securing more of its due than it has ever yet secured, and that for the present the pinch falls upon those classes which are not without resources, though their resources are rapidly dwindling in their hands.
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