THE SITUATION.
LL the makers of bulletins, except the Times' correspondent 13. in Berlin, concur in asserting that the chances of peace haveincreased, the diplomatists at Constantinople having found each' other unexpectedly reasonable. None of them offer any authentic evidence in support of this opinion, none of them affirm that the really burning question, that of guarantees, is settled, and none give the slightest clue to the intentions of the Turkish Government. Nevertheless, it is understood on all hands that matters are advancing " satisfactorily,"—that is, not that there-is an increasing chance that the population of Turkey may be liberated from the dominant oligarchy of Pashas, but that there is an increasing chance that the tranquillity of the Stock achanges may not be disturbed by any proposal of a thoroughly effective character. How far this impression is true; we have no means of deciding ; we can only record that it exists, and that it is supported by rumours more orless authen- tic, according to which the Russian Government is willing to remain content with the occupation of Bulgaria by a foreign police; instead of a foreign army. That is a concession of a_ sort, if it has been made, and it is supposed that if Russia desired war, she would resist all concession of any kind, and adhere pertinaciously to her first proposal, that her own army should insure tranquillity in the Christian Provinces.
We believe it is true that General Ignatieff has made some proposal of the kind, and that diplomatists at Constantinople and in England are greatly " encouraged " thereby, but we would warn our readers not to be too easily led away by optimist reports. Conferences always begin tranquilly, the diplomatists avoiding, as long as may be, the questions on which they sus- pect that a rupture may occur. Nothing is yet known of the demands to be actually presented to Turkey, and nothing of the resolutions formed by the governing Committee of the Ottoman caste. There is no proof, though there is a suspicion, that the Russian Government will be content with a patched- up arrangement, intended to last only as long as six Powers with different interests and different, views can contrive to simulate an accord, while there is strong evidence to show that the Turks, intend to make no substantial con- cessions whatever. They are arming Constantinople itself against an attack by sea, and are sending out circulars to their Agents in which they declare that they will not consent to any form of foreign occupation, but will consider any threat of the kind from any Power whatever a- cams bell's. It is quite possible, of course, that the P.ashaa, who are very good diplomatists of the Asiatic kind, think that these assurances- will influence the diplomatists who desire peace, and induce them to press for a, guarantee other than occupation; or may even be put forward to quiet any excitement among the Mahommedan populace of the capital. But it is at. least as probable that the Turks are sincere, that they disbelieve in any serious aecord among the Powers, and that they prefer fighting to making any con- cessions whatever. If they are to give up their rights over their Christian subjects, they may as well give them up after a contest as before one more especially an contest may, as it goes on, bring them powerful allies. That they will adhere to this resolution we do not affirm, as of late years their Non possumus has frequently turned out to be- a mere formula, but that they have formed this resolution they assert, and for all any one but themselves can tell, it may balms: The truth will only be known later, but as yet the evidence is that the Turks will in the end show unexpected obstinacy, and that General Ignatieff's mildness is in part produced by his knowledge that no compromise will be accepted by his foes.
One point comes out very clearly in the discussions, of this week, and that is the great difficulty of occupying Bulgaria by any troops other than the Russian. Prince Bismarck has vetoed the employment of French troops, even if the French Government were just now willing to undertake any European teak involving the risk of permanent displeasure, at St. Petersburg. A German occupation would be considered too dangerous at Vienna. An Austrian occupation would be unacceptable at St. Petersburg, and would, moreover, be opposed by the Magyars, who think that if Austria spreads eastward they will be lost in the multitude of her Slavonian subjects. The idea of Italian occupation, the most reasonable of all,, appears to be rejected, because Austria dreads t-alien influence on her littoral ; and Switzerland has refused, because, it, is stated she has not the means of compelling the Turkish Government to respect her troops. A Roumanian occupation, though it has much to recommend it, Roumania being power- less by herself, and the Roumanian army being in some nominal way a Turkish army, would probably strike both Austrian and Russian diplomatists as placing too powerful a weapon in the hands of Prince Bismarck, whose master is the head of the House to which Prince- Charles be- longs. There remain England and Russia, and. from all the intelligence which reaches- us, England shrinks from her share in the European task. in a. way not creditable to her character for disinterestedness; If she would occupy " Bulgaria " south of the Balkan, she would make the Russian occupation of the northern- side easy, and at the- same time protect herself from any danger of a sudden attack on Constantinople. Lord Beaconsfield, however, could not be expected to consent to any measure so unpalatable to his protégés the Pashas, while even the Liberals, we are ashamed to say, dread the certain strain and possible cost of performing such a duty. The work, therefore, is thrown on Russia, which, nevertheless, is forbidden by international jealousies to attempt it except at the cost of war, and may be compelled, if some of this week's rumours are true, to con- sent to some unsatisfactory or unworkable compromise, which will leave the Christians still liable to the terrorism which forbids them to develope their natural civilisation, and compels them always to look for direction to St. Petersburg. It is nearly inconceivable that the Conference should permit Turkish troops to remain in the Christian provinces, whether scattered over the country or concentrated in its strong places ; but if such a compromise should be permitted, it will be due solely to the British Government, and the peoples of the East will have new ground for their conviction that their only dangerons enemy is England, which will neither protect them, nor govern them, nor leave them and their allies to act by themselves. They do not know much of politics, but they are not. so ignorant as not to perceive that but for Lord Beaconsfield, the rule of the Pashas in European Turkey would by March next have become a misery of the past.
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