A Fig-Leaf for Mr Wilson

THE MOSCOW VISIT

From DEV MURARKA

MOSCOW

MR. WILSON'S Visit to the British Industrial Exhibition in Moscow this weekend will have the result of distracting attraction from an excellent trade fair and achieving little politically.

The initial reaction to his imminent arrival in Moscow was a degree of cynicism unusual even for a capital used to a constant stream of states- men and politicians. To begin with, no one took seriously the notion put out by Whitehall that the Russians had invited him. On the contrary, it was clear that Mr Wilson had foisted himself on his hosts by arranging to visit the British exhibition. The Russians naturally could not say 'No,' and so for good measure offered to be the hosts.

As it happens, the trade fair is doing quite well without him. The Russians are deeply interested in widening the range of their industrial goods, particularly those which can speed up the modernisation of the economy. It was a foregone conclusion that they were interested in Leyland buses because of their shortage of all kinds of motor vehicles. For them it is also politic to buy car and truck plants from different countries, rather than rely on one source. Above all, this approach makes it easier for them to obtain credits. And they are willing to buy other things, too, so long as they fit into their pattern of growth.

The Russians can certainly increase their intake of British goods and, indeed, during the last year they have done so and the tempo will rise faster as the current five-year plan really gets into swing. But, across the counter, the Russians are hard bargainers and expect special treatment. They argue that the Soviet Union is such a vast market and so different from others that it deserves concessions. They never conclude a deal Its a hurry and may even put it off if they feel that the seller, after cooling his heels, will offer better terms at the next round of negotiations. Many prominent British industrialists have dis- covered this to their cost when they came here with an idea of rushing through a deal because they thought their goods or processes were exclusive. But the Russians will undoubtedly ponder over the goods they have seen and then make their choice. Mr Wilson's ceremonial presence at the fair is unlikely to expedite this process or to persuade the Russians to buy any more than they really want. So far as trade goes, his visit is no more than a nice gesture.

The exhibition, therefore, is something of a transparent fig-leaf for Mr Wilson's political motives in flying to Moscow for the second time in five months. On the face of it, he is bitten by the irresistible urge to play the peacemaker in the Vietnam war. Normally, of course, a visit for this noble objective would be laudable enough. All the doubts and misgivings about this week's visit arise from the particular circum- stances in which it originated, and from the circumstances in which the Prime Minister cur- rently finds himself.

No one here, least of all the Russians, believes that Mr Wilson can play a useful role at this stage. In between the announcement of his visit and his arrival, the Soviet press has lost no time in reminding him that his bona fides are thoroughly suspect. That he has dared to add his mild protest over the latest bombing raids by the Americans has only further exposed his commitment to the

American line in general; and partisans are not usually expected to be honest brokers. While the Soviet press has not printed his plea for a resumption of the Geneva conference, it has brought up the Rhodesian problem, as if to point out that if Mr Wilson really wants a rale for himself there is a task for him to sort out in Central Africa.

In fact, all the explanations of his visit here are uncharitable, some more than others. It is argued, for instance, that his only concern is to placate the left wing of his party and some of the rank and file members who are becoming more and more disillusioned at the lapse from grace of their yesteryear's idol. The visit is also openly said to be an attempt by the Prime Minister to refurbish his image with the British public in general, after the knock it took from his handling of the seamen's strike. Abroad, it is felt he chiefly wants to please President Johnson by pressurising the Russians to hold the Geneva con- ference for which the Americans are now thought here to be more anxious than ever. The trouble is that no Geneva conference can be held unless the Russians are sure that Hanoi wants it, and Ho Chi Minh will not budge till the Americans cease to behave like bullies pouring destruction from the air at one moment and forcing a march to Geneva the next. In these circumstances, what solution has Mr Wilson to offer?

The Chinese, whose political hold over Hanoi increases in proportion to the American intensi- fication of war, have already poured cold water on the even more radical proposals in this direc- tion from the Indian Prime Minister, Mrs Gandhi, who has preceded Mr Wilson here. It is also

noticeable that even Moscow has made no com- ment on her proposals, although they are sup- posed to have the sympathy of both President Nasser and President Tito. Mr Wilson therefore would seem to have even less chance of making progress.

Nevertheless, despite the bleak report in the Morning Star that the Russians will have nothing to do with him, they will still give him a polite enough hearing. The point is that they are interested in exploring all possible alternatives which can impress Hanoi and make Ho Chi Minh change his mind. It is more than likely, however, that they will argue with even greater force with Wilson to persuade his big brother Johnson to take a less hawk-like view of the Vietnam situa- tion. The Russians genuinely share with the Vietnamese the conviction that, despite every hardship the Americans may inflict on Vietnam, the country has a natural capacity to survive. The only possible way for peace in their view is for the Americans to retreat from their fixed position, and not Hanoi from theirs.

How reliable a messenger Mr Wilson is re- mains to be seen. He cannot expect, after all, to influence the Russians if he cannot influence his own allies. Thus he may well find himself, to his surprise, at the receiving end rather than push- ing his own line. Mr Dean Rusk's recommenda- tion of Mr Wilson's mission for reconvening the Geneva conrerence has only confirmed suspicions that the Prime Minister's visit is at the behest of the Americans.

It is possible, of course, that Mr Wilson is innocent of all the machinations attributed to him. But the truth is that the Russians no longer credit him with any measure of political integrity. It is not a moral but a political judgment. In the eyes of the Russians, his commitment to Washington has left him naked.

Before attempting to preside over the Vietnam conference, Mr. Wilson will need to put his politi- cal clothes on. Moscow cannot help wondering, however, if he can pay the tailor's bill.

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