THE MELTING OF ALLIANCES.
IT is the Foreign Secretaries of Europe rather than the diplomatists proper who are fretting just now at the way things are going. The latter, even when in difficul- ties, can always fall back on their instructions ; but the former are required to pursue, and occasionally to invent, definite policies. They have had for some years on the Continent two distinct ideas which have governed every- thing,—namely, to maintain peace, and to consolidate the great Alliances. The former task is not, perhaps, more difficult than it was, because the fear of the awful scale of modern war still acts as a pacifying influence, but the latter begins to tax very acute brains. The Powers, in fact, being in the presence of new events, are beginning to seek, or at least to hanker after, new combinations. The danger occurred first of all when the Sultan attacked the Armenians, and it appeared for some days not even probable but certain that Austria and Italy would break away from the old compacts and follow Great Britain in a determined effort to rush the Dardanelles and place European Turkey under the control of Western civilisa- tion. Unhappily, as we think, that great and beneficial movement was arrested by influences at which the present writer can only guess; and the Foreign Secretaries, greatly relieved, sank back into their calm. They are now disturbed again. Each Great Power on the Continent is betray- ing "selfish" tendencies, and to reconcile the effect of those tendencies with old agreements is by no means a simple business. The Russian Government is pursuing, for instance, a really great and thoughtful policy in Northern Asia, the very policy which we in her place should pursue,—namely, trying to force her way to the Northern Pacific at a point where her commerce and naval enterprise will not be hindered too much by excessive cold. If she succeeds in this, all Siberia, now a source of great expense, will become a second Canadian Dominion, with great attractions for her Northern peasantry, who are now swarming southward with most inconvenient rapidity. Russia is, therefore, quite in earnest, and as France can- not help her much, naturally sways towards England and Germany, and even Japan, who can. M. Hanotaux does not like that at all, and is justified in his annoyance. France has really made great sacrifices, especially in finance, to secure the alliance of Russia, and it is most vexatious for her to see Russia not only turning away from Europe, but actually courting Germany and England, and leaving France out in the cold. France, it may be said, is still guaranteed against invasion, and therefore loses nothing; but those who say this mistake the character of France. She likes "advantages" very much, but she likes one thing better, and that is a great position all over the world, and that she does not obtain. Everybody is shouting over gains, and she has nothing tangible to shout about. She feels like a society beauty who is left out of a great ball, and begins to doubt whether she has not paid too many expenses for her great patroness. There is a powerful party in France, with M. Clemenceau for mouth- piece, which has never cordially approved the Russian Alliance, and it begins to speak out in unmistakeable terms. Then Italy asks herself what sort of help she got from her allies when her African catastrophe fell upon her, and begins to doubt in a quite perceptible way whether France might not be a more profitable friend, especially upon the side of economics. And finally there is Austria, which is getting nothing out of all the scrambles, which in its staid and slightly prim Conservatism is greatly tried by the German Emperor's incalculable freaks, and which is strongly drawn on another side towards a Russian "understanding" that makes everything easy in the Balkans. Englishmen, full of old traditions, can hardly think of Austria as a colonising Power, and cannot conceive why she should not maintain for ever her dignified arm-chair quiet; but those who rule Austria, Count Goluchowski particularly, know that there is economic unrest both in Hungary and in the Cisleithan Monarchy of a very dangerous kind, perceive that as the lower populations increase in wants there is not quit.. enough wealth to go round, and like other Continental statesmen, think that the source of wealth will be found by " tapping " Asia. To do them justice, the Austrians did not believe much in the profits to be obtained from clothing naked negroes ; but now that China is to be "opened up" Austria is restless at what she deems to be the profitable adventures of her neighbours. Germany is quite ready to be defended by her against Russia, but in China Germany gives her nothing, not even a nice little port. That is not satisfactory to an ancient dynasty with ideas about its own claims, and induces thoughts which take the direction of a suspicion that after all isolated action, when one has so powerful an Army, might pay better than the most permanent of alliances. What, for instance, query great people in Austria, does Germany mean by permitting Pan-Germans to talk so freely, and why does Germany refuse so emphatically the Danish request that Denmark should be declared in perpetuity a neutral State ?
We by no means wish to hint that the great Alliances will speedily be broken up. They constitute for the present the framework of the European system, and could not be torn asunder without risk of crashes. Moreover, one of them, the Alliance of Germany and Austria, is almost essential to their safety, and two partners must be very much exasperated before they will part company at the risk of the bankruptcy of either. Still, Foreign Secretaries, who have to reconcile conflicting claims, have a good deal to do, and cannot be expected altogether to approve the outlook. They are not, as a rule, optimists, and they do not in the least believe that any State which can gain an advantage would forego it out of friendship, or because of pledges, or out of a feeling of gratitude for the past. They look round for new means of acquiring strength, and cannot help thinking how pleasant it would be if Great Britain could be induced to throw her " world- power " upon their side. It would make them so safe and give them such chances. Sometimes the thought brings on a fit of petulance, during which the "arro- gant and isolated Power" is roundly abused ; some- times it brings on a spasm of politeness, and then the "tenacity," and "consistency," and " success" of Britain are as loudly extolled ; but always the same thought is there. If England were only governed by a Monarch, with whom one could make secret agree- ments, instead of by that wretched "public," which will not hold its tongue, and can never be depended upon, except when it is angry. Nobody can " manage " England, and so the Foreign Secretaries sometimes menace, and sometimes coax, and sometimes swear, but always in the end wait a little longer to see what time will bring,—wait, that is, for the unexpected which always arrives. We wonder if there is a Chancellor in Europe who honestly believes that he can depend absolutely upon his treaties, or that friendship could not be turned into enmity by an event, or that he himself. can foresee any importan:, occurrence, say, six weeks in advance. We question if any one of those great personages is just now certain of anything except a burning wish that the German Emperor would, like other Monarchs, allow his speeches to be written for him,—and under pressure of that uncertainty they are not only anxious, but, if we may use so common an expression, are greatly inclined to fidget.
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