HAPSBURG-MONTEZUMA. T HE recent intelligence from Mexico has sent up Mexican
bonds ; but it is only on speculators that it is likely to leave any pleasant impression. Most Englishmen, we sus- pect, sympathized, though faintly, with this Napoleonic idea, more especially when it was proved that the defence of Puebla was a mere flash in the pan. The invasion was allowed to be somewhat unprincipled, very dangerous as a precedent, and wholly opposed to the other Napoleonic idea, or pledge, that "the age of conquests had passed." Still, the condition of Mexico was exceedingly bad, little hope was entertained of reforms from a half-savage chief, and the people could keep the French out, as Puebla showed, if they earnestly loved independence. If France would but use her conquest well, visibly " regenerate " Mexico, and accept the full responsibility of the work she had sought, the irregular origin of her power might, it was thought, be forgiven. Politicians, too, even when favourable to the Union, were not indisposed to see a balance of power introduced into the American system. Uniformity is fatal to civilization, and the expansion of one State over a Continent threatens the inhabitants of that State even more than the rest of the world. Mexico as a State was no counterpoise to the Union, but Mexico as a French eolony would be an impassable barrier to the extension of the stereotyped forms of North American life. Englishmen, therefore, watched with patience the tedious march upon Mexico, forgave the storm of Puebla —in itself about as justifiable as the desolation of the Pala- tinate--and waited with hope for the conclusion of the scenic effects which it was well understood would precede the final annexation.
The denouement has arrived, and, as far as appears, not one of the hopes for which English Liberals put aside their own principles is likely to be fulfilled. The conquest will be com- pleted, but not the process by which alone conquest could be rendered endurable to men who believe that if the world is not governed by principles it will, sooner or later, be ruled by the sabre's edge. Instead of declaring Mexico a dependent empire like India, or a colony like Aiustralia, or a mixture of both like Algeria, and so seellrillo' safety and order as the compensations for subjugation, the strange being who rules France has adhered to a plan so utterly bizarre in its apparent end, its motives' and its details, that observers even yet can scarcely believe their senses. An Assembly of Notables culled by General Forey from churchmen, intriguers, and great pro- prietors, has voted Mexico an empire, and offered the throne to the Archduke Maximilian of Austria. Five commissioners have set out for Europe to carry the welcome tidings, and there is every probability that the Archduke, after sonic negotiation, will be induced to accept the offer. Was ever anything more absurdly bizarre ? France expends thousands of lives to find a throne for a Hapsburg. An Austrian Arch- duke, himself wealthy and popular, consents to serve for years as the Viceroy of a Bonaparte. The expedition which was "to reinvigorate the Latin race" ends in a Teutonic regime. A French army is to uphold a German Irince in ruling over Spanish settlers and Mexican Indians in the teeth of the Anglo-Saxon republic. The mere statement of the para- doxes involved seems to ensure ultimate failure and grave consideration does not improve the prospect. failure, all know how a French Viceroy would govern, in what ho would succeed, and wherein he would fail. He would be exceedingly imperious, or perhaps tyrannical, would prohibit free speech, and fling over all external life a net of scientific but most wearisome official rules. No man would do what he chose unless a Parisian in grain, and no man, Parisian or not, would be able to avoid doing what the Government chose. But all private or local tyrannies would perish utterly off the earth. Brigands and violent evil-doers generally would be hunted like beasts of prey, priests would be restricted to spiritual functions, municipalities would be coerced into something so regular as to be mistaken for justice.
Order and systematic authority would pervade the land, the taxes would be fairly collected, the customs clearly accounted for' the army brought under control, the country traversed by roads and bridges, the cities filled with magnificent build- ings, material civilization everywhere be made at once attractive and profitable. Trade would revive as by magic, credit grow up like a gourd, and Mexico be pronounced by foreigners who are not "suspect," and do not want political freedom, a kind of tropical paradise or Mohammedan heaven. As material civilization is exactly what Mexico wants, French rule as an ad interim arrangement till the population had time to recover, caste distinctions were fairly effaced, and the people had educated themselves, might be the most bene- ficial of trials. But the rule of a German King, supported only by French soldiery, is a very different th!ng. The arrangement has never succeeded even when the Sovereign was a Frenchman and a man of administrative ability. The experi- ment cannot be tried under more favourable circumstances than it was in Holland ; King Louis was the second ablest of all the Bonapartes, and really liked his people, was personally popular, and had no overt resistance to meet, and we all know how that broke down. The German Emperor of Mexico must either rely on his people, in which case the French will be jealous and arbitrary mercenaries, or on his allies, in which case they will be and feel that they are, a French army of occupation holding a foreign country, i.e., the most intolerably oppressive of earthly organizations. The French soldiery are not oppressive at home, not ill-restrained in their own colonies, not more intolerable than our own troops when con- scious of being at war. But, as an army of occupation, they manage, especially among Spaniards, who have a prejudice in. favour of female chastity, to excite unparalleled detestation. No substantial good can be hoped for under such circum- stances, and probably no substantial strength, at least Maxi- milian will be the first foreigner, not being in the service of France, who ever managed to govern French troops. The balance of power so much hoped for will be entirely unreal. Mexico as a colony would have been as safe asHeligolandis safe, because over it rested the shadow of an all-powerful throne ; but Mexico under a German, and without France to aid, is but a simulacrum of power. Let the organization be as per- fect as it will, and still seven millions of half-castes, Indians, and negroes could offer no resistance to the power which is to-day crushing eight millions of Anglo-Saxons. No regime the House of Hapsburg can introduce will equal the slave- holding oligarchy in effective fighting power, and the North is breaking up that. Even if assistance were to be hoped for from Germany, which is not probable, the North could hold the seas despite the most frantic efforts of Austria. There is, it is true, the possibility of a German Catholic emigration, for, strange to say, Napoleon's offer has been accepted in Ger- many with a thrill of gratified pride ; but emigration to rise to millions occupies many years, and German Austria is far away from the sea. It is difficult to conceive the circumstances under which the Archduke, deprived of foreign assistance, could maintain himself against the North for twelve months ; and the mere existence of the danger, though the North should remain quiescent, will destroy the balance of power. Mexico will be deprived of the possibility of developing a free and original life without securing internal order or safety from external attack.
It is hard to believe that the Emperor has not realized all these difficulties. The very singularity of the plan adopted shows how strong a hold it has taken on the Imperial mind. Through twelve months of delay and expense and unpopu- larity in Mexico and at home, amidst the murmurs of politi- cians, and the criticisms of financiers, and the subdued growls of the army, the Emperor has held. on, and the Prince whose photographs packed in bales accompanied General Foray to Vera Cruz in 1862 is in August, 1863, Emperor Elect of the Mexicans. Cold persistence of that kind when displayed by a monarch who reverences public opinion who "understands when epoch," and who knows, therefore, lien and how to give way, indicates broad and deep design. Itis not for us to pene- trate the secrets of that cavernous mind which, for aught we know, may look upon Mexico only as a toy with which to purchase some new gem from the great European dealers. But it is open to all men to see that there are but two projects which offer the faintest hope for the stability of a Franco- Germanic-Mexican-Indian throne. The Emperor may have obtained a promise of our formal guarantee. If he has the throne is safe, but there is an end of the Ministry which signed it. That, however, is not probable. Or he may retain Sonora, Baja California, and Chihuahua, as a colony, and so fling France between Mexico and the land route of her terrible foe. In that case the Emperor of Mexico commences his rule by a partition, and the Emperor of the French has bound himself to defend Mexico without the aid of her " regenerated " population. Or finally, he has agreed to recognize the South and sanction a strict alliance between the new Emperor and Mr. Davis. That is the fear which is now Bending a shudder of terror and rage through every corner of the North, is rendering conscription easy, and compelling the Government, without a marine to combat, to double its iron-clad fleet. The recognition unsupported by force would be useless, but force may be employed, and in that case the Emperor of the French has pledged himself to a vast maritime war, with half Europe openly hostile, in order that a race for whom Frenchmen care little may be governed by a Prince whom they regard as an hereditary foe. In which of the four cases is the Ctesar wise ?
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