. . . and statistics
'The Romeo and Juliet romance of a teenage couple whose marriage was annulled this week only ever had a 50-50 chance of survival, say experts.'
(Daily Express, 23 April) A 1985 change in the law, making divorce quicker, renders valid compari- sons between marriage-and-divorce fi- gures for before that date and after it nearly impossible. Hence only 1986, the latest year for which statistics are avail- able, provides figures with which to generalise about current trends. The number of marriages in 1986 where both partners were under 20, as in the `Romeo and Juliet romance' under dis- cussion, was just over 6,000. The num- ber of divorces in the same category in that year was 121/4 thousand.
Marriages in which both partners were under 20 when they married actually constitute the smallest number of the teenage marriage categories in the 1986 divorce figures. Historically, at any rate, it looks as if disparity of age between spouses is more inimical to a marriage's ultimate survival than the spouses' youth per se.
It is also foolish to extrapolate from statistical aggregates and say that any one specific marriage is subject to given odds. Each marriage is a unique rela- tionship between two human indi- viduals possessed of free will. Unlike a race horse they could simply decide to 'beat the book' and stay married, however hellish their relationship. The relationship between, say, a smoker's lungs and cancer, or a drunk driver and a motor smash, is more easily forecast. (120 goes to David Short, of Finchley) The invitation to readers to send in examples of cavalier use of statistics stands. Address full details, with news- paper cuttings where possible, to The Spectator, (. . . and statistics). A £20 prize for the best published example and £10 for every other one published.
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