THE TEA CADDY FOR 1860.

THE state of the Tea trade begins to excite something more than solicitude,—that look-out for practical measures which solicitude always prompts in the Anglo-Saxon race; except on those occa- sions,—be they rare,—when the Anglo-Saxon race is rather unwell. Last week we reviewed the general state of trade for the past year, with such a glance at its prospects for the opening year as is per-

mitted to shortsighted humanity; but there are some portions of the subject which invite a closer examination in the interest of that important person, the housekeeper, whose administration, expenditure, and comfort generally, are deeply concerned in some of these trade questions. As usual, the story of the Tea trade and itsresent anxieties is best told in a simple recital of the fact. The history of the past year is conspicuous for the absence of speculative proceedings. We could find many causes for that forbearance,—such as the magnitude of the trade and its wide- spread consumption, which make it not easily "manageable," the gravity of the present prospect, and the just doubts of dealers whether it would be safe to go beyond the plain guidance of sup- ply and demand. Whatever the causes, however, the fact is as we have stated, that in the vast commerce which is in the service of that glorious institution, that rallying point for all domestic influences, the British teapot, traders have been exceedingly cau- tious and practical during the year 1850; and the reasons for that conduct materially affect the prospects of the year 1860. The steady obedience to circumstance will be seen from the course of prices.

"Taking common congou as an index," say Messrs. W. J. and H. Thomp- son, "we find that on the 1st of Januhry it stood at llid. per lb., from which point it steadily rose to Is. 21d. The money panic in April affected it but slightly, and it had recovered and reached Is. 3d. when the news of the defeat on the Peiho was received. The fear that trade might be inter- rupted in consequence led to immediate speculation and a sudden advance to Is. 51d., followed also by an equal rise inmost kinds. Subsequent accounts, however, proving that these fears were groundless, a depression totally un- warranted by statistics set in, under which it fell to Is. led. per lb., to recover, however, shortly to the same point at which it stood before the receipt of the news—a reaction for which no special cause could be assigned, save only the law that such usually follows any undue depression. The year closed with an active trade demand at improving prices, not only for common cong,ou, then worth Is. 3:1d. per lb., but for all other classes."

The largest amount of increase has, as is usual in such cases, been in the commoner kinds; and while in those which are most demanded prices have gone up 30 per cent, the finer grades re- main nearly at old prices ; and why ? Because the thrifty house- keeper, unwilling to lay out more, sticks to the " cheaper " orders of tea. Perhaps the true economy of that course will have some doubt thrown upon it by what the said thrifty housekeeper who honours our pages with a perusal may read further on.

The two direct coefficient causes of the high and rising prices are—the steady increase of consumption, and tight limitation of the supplies in the producing market. The increase of the con- sumption is most striking,—and most encouraging. It proves at once the growing addiction to "the cup which cheers but not ine- briates," and the general increase of purchasing means in the po- pulation at large,—facts which we know to be, in this country, indices also of improved condition both as to morals and intelli- gence. We give the statistics of the consumption for the last twenty-two years ; but the reader who does not like statistics may skip the table, for we will point out the results for him,—perhaps we should say for her.

Years. Duty Paid. Exported. Total Deliveries. Pounds. Pounds. Pounds.

32,351,593 0,577,877 ,127,287 34,929,470 33

32,232,628 3,318,919 Z8,446,199 2,383,384 34,636,012 36,6,5,667 4,490,363 41,166,020 37,389,576 5,743,864 43,133,440 40,302,951 44,981,607 41,366,937 54:0.675,8,,,i60286 46,426,195 44,165,207 4,252,036 48,417,243 46,553,359 3,813,651 45,021,406 4,872,163 .50,379,010 50,793,649 48,748,971 3,551,528 52,287,499

54J,i4o,7,6 5,109,286

55,250,072 51,147,059 5,523,192 56,670,891 51,324,040 4,631,935

589

58,650.000

54,687,000 6,485,000 61,17529,975

000 61,124,000 63,633,000 5,003,005 9,066,000 13,484,000 70,190,000 64,109,000 77,593,000 63,248,000 6,134,000

69,116,000 763 89,17872,01

9,061,000 73,160,000 7,729,000 80,889,000 1838 1833 1040 1041 1842 1813 1844 ISIS 1816 1347 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1453 1854 1853 1856 1857 1830 Estimate for 1859 76,222,000 7,110,000 83,382,000

It will be seen here that in 1838, with a population in England about 15,500,000, we consumed nearly 35 minions of pounds; whereas in 1858, with a population of nearly 18,000,000, we con- sumed 81 millions ; in 1859, so far as the returns are known, the consumption has probably been considerably above 83 millions ; and, if we adhere to our habits, for 1860 we should want de- cidedly more than 851 millions of pounds. Shall we get it ? That is the question.

For the first month of the year the prospect is not very en- couraging. "The China mail," says Messrs. R. Parkin and Co., in their circular for January,* "reporting shipments of tea in excess of last year of 21,000,000 * Last week we mentioned the commercial circulars which formed the grounds for our paper on the trade of 1859 and 1860. The data for the present paper have in like manner been derived from information furnished by Messrs. W. J. and II. Thompson' Messrs. Carlisle, Parr, and nd Messrs. R. Parkin and Co. This last is one of the oldest firms in the Co.,Lon- don tea trade ; having occupied its present place of business since the days when Bedford Street was first a fashionable West-end street, and the wits of an extinct century lounged past its door or revived their faculties with its fragrant restorative. And although the building will be swept away by the improvement on the Bedford estate round Covent Garden, the firm will re- main on the same spot, probably to connect the present with future as well as past centuries. It is not always that London firms thus survive whole ages of London buildings. This house has special opportunities of survey- ing the tea-trade, in its retail as well as wholesale branches, not only in the East and West ends of London, but in the suburbs and in the provinces. We state these facts because we wish to show how far we rest on practical authority.

pounds, has hitherto exercised no influence ; as from the quantity in Eng- land (little over six months' consumption) more than three times that excess is required to bring up our floating stock to a position of safety, for while our consumption for the year 18.57 was 79 millions, 1858 was 81 mil- lions, and for 1859 nearly 88 millions, our imports have been for 1856-61,000,000 '7-78,000,000 '8-65,000,000.

" But quantity is not the only deficit, as a large portion of the new teas are wanting in quality, and especially is it difficult to obtain a blackish leaf congou of good medium, useful kind, and for which we must fall back upon our old stock, unless the cargoes contained in the ships just arrived, viz., the Wolverine, Ilersilia, Corrie-mulzie, Egmont, Rapid, or Admiral can supply our need."

This last expectation has no doubt been in part fulfilled, we shall see why. There is, therefore, plenty of tea on hand, it can be had of every quality, including the best. And in passing, we may remark, that there are teas in the market which do not technically look so pretty as others which may be shown, but yet, like some of our generous but homely fellow-creatures, "come out strong" when in hot water, Some of the teas from Foo- chow-foo afford an example ; for, though the leaf is not always curled according to the most perfect art, the flavour and service- able quality are admirable. On the other hand, we need not caution consumers not to suppose that all ill-favoured teas are well flavoured and good,—a mistake as serious as to suppose that every ugly man is "good at heart." But while we still have fair supplies, at reasonable prices, what about the year—what before next Christmas ?

For some years past we have bad a consumption steadily ahead of the importation. It is not that the importations have fallen back ; on the contrary, with one exception, the im- port of 1859 exceeded that of any previous year. lit 1856, it was 61 millions of pounds ; in 1857, 78 millions ; in 1858, 65 millions ; and in 1859, 75 millions. But the last amount was attained only in consequence of great exer- tions made in China to send away as much as possible before any interruption of business by the commencement of hostilities. The increase of price has, as we have seen, had no effect in checking consumption. It is quite true that the same progress of industry and social improvement which has promoted the consumption of tea with the other necessaries or comforts of life, has introduced facilities which may perhaps render the keeping of large stocks less imperative. The introduction of steamers in lieu of sailing ships will contribute to this end by bringing supplies more rapidly from abroad ; and at home we see it mentioned that the extension of railways assists in equalizing the stock throughout the United Kingdom. But we may remark, it also assists in acce- lerating the consumption of the stock. And there is no sign that the consumption will abate. The tea duties will expire in April next; should they not be reimposed, a reduction of ls. 5d. per pound will unquestionably cause a greater demand for tea. In some of our agricultural counties it has long been in extensive demand— in Devonshire, for instance, and in Suffolk, even amongst the labouring classes; and. with the spread of intercourse, intelli- gence, and means, the wife of the country labourer is learning to • prize the luxury for her household quite as much as the wife of the town mechanic. And we may expect that the amount requi- site for such classes would rise to an average equalling that al- lowed to the class of domestics—six pounds a year—which, in a population of 26 millions, would require a supply of 156 millions of pounds. Now this is rather a formidable prospect ; for the average amount hitherto exported from China, exclusively of that conveyed overland. to Russia, has not exceeded 130 millions of pounds per annum. With that prospect for the future, we begin the year 1860 with unusually low stocks. It used to be thought necessary to have on hand in England stock sufficient for three years' consumption. During the last ten years it has only risen once to the amount of one year's consumption, only once been above it, and only once been below the stock of 1859. The figures stand thus :- 18O — amonths' consumption. 1855 — 101 months' consumption. 1851 — 9f 17 18.56— 151 77 1852-- 9f lf 1857 — 12 1853 — 101 71 1858 — 10i 18.54— 10f 77 1859— 8f

Thus we begin the year at home with trade in a sober and steady state, consumption steadily advancing, and the chance of so much impulse to consumption as would result from the removal of the tea-duties ; while in China we see, instead of increased pro- duction, a tendency to diminish, from the disturbance of civil war, the threat of more serious interruption from a great foreign war, with occasional variations of speculative strategems to realize higher prices from the exporting merchant—the supplies even from that contracted source depending later in the year upon the proverbially doubtful contingencies of arms and diplomacy. A curious and unusual question suggests itself to the economist in this thoroughgoing free-trade country : would it not literally be in the interest of the consumer to refrain from letting the tea- duties lapse in April, and so to enforce economy by obtaining the check of a higher price, the prudential exaction saving our pockets

in another way, by being added to the credit of the national exchequer? It seems highly probable that the idea will strike

Mr. Gladstone in this light. But as we are a matter-of-fact people, and not inclined to put up with a difficulty where intelligent exertion and enterprise will supply the want, we find that a question long since asked— whence shall we obtain other supplies ?—has acquired that strong practical force which will screw us up to giving a practical answer. And we have long since anticipated that question by our answer —in India ; where the culture and export of tea will give em- ployment to British capital, increasing our hold upon the soil of the great empire, and releasing us from dependence on a miserable and incorrigible race.

But meanwhile ? For the thrifty housekeeper does not look forward quite so far, and is seldom disposed to waste time in cal- culating the future rise or fall of empires and imperial trades. In the meanwhile then, the facts are these. We still have teas in the market at prices which would formerly have been thought very reasonable ; although of late years domestic economists have been accustomed to lower rates. For the best kinds, the prices are virtually most moderate. Stocks are very low, and as every future contingency threatens a contraction of the supplies, the housekeeper will probably be called upon to confront prices rising as the year advances. So that in June or December probably, she will look back to the prices of January as the month of the year most favourable to the store-room.