ELECTION BETTING
Not always To the swift
Captain THREADNEEDLE
The scrummaging as the runners in this year's Great Westminster Handicap reach the home straight has made Tattenham Cor- ner look like a musical ride of the Household Cavalry. Early flourishing of whips has given way on the one hand to allegations of repeated crossing; on the other, to ob- jections for boring. One stable is said to have connived at alterations of the course in its own favour, worth some twenty or thirty lengths. There are persistent suggestions of doping, though by whom on whom remains obscure. Such disorder can only tend weight to demands for control of politician-racing to pass into the hands of a supremo, the most fancied candidates for this office being Mr Ian Mikardo, Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother, and Lord Wigg.
But if dust rises from the racecourse, in Tattersalls Ring the odds tell their own story with painful clarity. Never has so strong a winter favourite drifted so ominously in the market. A horse laid at a comfortable two to one on turned, as the final gallops were being compared, into no more than a joint favourite, and has been so freely laid in run- ning as to be on offer at three to one against, and even touching seven to two. Money, in this game. talks: and if it speaks truly. trainer Barber may well find himself in front of the stewards to explain the disparity in his horse's running in its preliminaries and in the Great Westminster itself. Small con- solation to owners or backers if he has to plead bad luck in running, lead-poaching by other jockeys (this course. like Ascot, has a short run-in and there is little scope to make
up ground), dissension in the home camp, or that most fatal of all equine complaints, a touch of the slows.
No such problems now beset—though nothing is certain in racing—the rival stable, notionally in the care of H. Nicholas (much as, before the Jockey Club recognised women trainers, Mrs Norah Wilmot's licence was held by her head lad). Here it is generally recognised that the stable jockey is in charge, and he must be pleased with the latest prices from Ladbrokes. These cover not only the result but the number of lengths. In this sense, Ladbrokes' joint favourites are that jockey Wilson will coast in by fifty-six to sixty lengths, sixty-one to sixty-five, or sixty-six to seventy. Odds of seven to one are laid against each of these, and they can therefore be backed in combination at odds of five to one. Since a result of this kind is foreseen by such private handicappers as Gallup and Nop, the price has its attractions. It is no more than a personal preference to say that ten to one about thirty-six to forty lengths and nine to one about forty-one to forty-five look more attractive still. Punters who suspect that the horse may after all be beaten close home will be interested in such prices as eleven to one ,against a win for the Barber stable by one to ten lengths, or twen- ty-two to one against a dead-heat (this price has doubled since the race began.)
But these markets have proved rewarding in the past less for straight bets—after all, with one horse three to one against and its rival five to one on, the book's margin is substantial—as for doubles and for arbitrages. In the 1964 election a modest shift in prices made it possible for one punter to make fifteen bets giving him, in total, a certain win on all results except a Con-
servative win by more than fifty lengths. Another has recently claimed to have taken the five to two at one stage offered against Labour, and to have laid it off at today's prices for a useful gain. (It must be a lesson of this year's race that the Government is never five to two against.) That perspicaci- ous commentator Mr Patrick Sergeant recommended taking six to four against Labour and coupling it with a purchase of Southern Rhodesian 2+ per cent bonds, which would rise on a Conservative victory. Since he wrote, Southern Rhodesians have risen from £24 to £29, and the balance of arbit- rage may now be the other way: the punter should perhaps sell Southern Rhodesians short and take three to one against the Con- servatives. But the most interesting betting medium could open if the race goes as the books foretell. The market still remembers, with a wince, the rush of inspired money which brought Home down from twenty-five to one to six to one in the leadership Stakes of 1963. If that event is re-run there should be some open betting and much scope for laying off. No prices are yet being made, but the pattern might be: five to two Powell, seven to two Maudling, Soames, nine to two Macleod, six to one Whitelaw, one-hundred to eight Rip- pon, Joseph, thirty-three to one Lieutenant- Colonel Sir Walter Bromley-Davenport.
The race — as Damon Runyon said — is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way they're being.
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