TOPICS OF THE DAY .
THE EUROPEAN SiTuATION.
BISHOP BUTLER is said to have discussed the question whether a whole nation could go mad. If he were alive to-day he might have extended the inquiry to whether the whole of civilized mankind might not be subject to an overthrow of reason, or at any rate to ferments, moral and intellectual, almost amounting to madness. Wherever we cast our eyes at the present moment we find a condition of restlessness and revolution, not only in the internal affairs of States, but in their inter- national relations. If not from China to Peru, at any rate from China to Tripoli, and from Persia to Berlin, there is agitation and unrest. It would of course be an exaggera- tion in the greater number of instances to speak of the unrest as anything approaching delirium, but still there are undoubted signs that for some reason or other men's minds are not only deeply stirred, but that there is feverish desire for action, expansion, development—movement of some sort which is none the less dangerous because it is vague and purposeless. The nations, as a whole, do not seem to know what they desire or what they want to do, but they want to do something. The effect upon the statesmen, whose political ideal is usually that of "follow my followers," is naturally one of bewilderment if not distraction.
We cannot attempt to give an exact diagnosis of the causes of this malaise, though we observe its effects. At the same time it is interesting, and may be useful to take note of some of the particular vortices in the general whirlpool. Germany as we write is occupied with the most important General Election since the for- mation of her Constitution and the endowment of her people with universal suffrage for their choice of repre- sentatives—though by no means for the choice of their Government. Nominally the elections are " English elections." Tho big drum is being beaten by the advo- cates of the Government in order to impress the voters with the notion of how wicked and how oppressive has been the action of the British Ministry towards the peace- loving and gentle-minded German Administration. The chief complaint seems to be that we acted in regard to France the part which the Emperor acted in regard to Austria-Hungary some two years ago. We are, in fact, accused of having proved the " friend in shining armour " who stood by France when Germany wanted to deal faith- fully with her. Wo need not here discuss the merits of this accusation. Our readers know already our opinion of it. But though the elections in Germany are nominally English elections, all careful students of the situation know that in reality they are Socialistic elections. What is at issue is whether the Socialists are to obtain a position of power in the Reichstag which will make it impossible for the Government in future to ignore them as nothing but enemies of the State. The Socialist vote in Germany has undoubtedly hitherto been swelled by the support of those who may be called generally the friends of freedom and of democratic government. Thousands of men vote Socialist in Germany who are at heart individualists, and whose creed is much more like that of English Conservatives than of the followers of Marx. The Government by an appeal to Jingo patriotism are trying to detach these enemies of autocratic government from the Socialist side. If they fail and there is a Socialist victory the present rulers of the Empire will have to decide whether in effect to ignore the Reichstag or to let the scheme of government develop on what we should call constitutional lines, i.e., allowing the will of the majority to prevail. It might seem at first from this sketch of the German situation as if international affairs were little concerned. But there is always behind the apparent situation the danger that the Government may seek to divert public attention by another access of spirited foreign policy. If they determine to rule without Parliament the cry " The Fatherland in danger ! " may seem to them the easiest way out of their troubles. If it does there will be little need to expatiate upon the danger of the situation.
If we turn from Germany to France we find a con- dition of Ministerial unrest which may have very serious consequences. The revelation of what appears to be a system of secret diplomacy carried on by the late Prime Minister behind the back of his colleague at the Foreign Office has led to the resignation of the Ministry, and France is now in the throes of a very grave Ministerial crisis. Till a new Cabinet is formed comment is not of much value. We can only express the hope that, whatever Government succeeds to power, it will have the good sense to be both reasonable and generous in its treatment of the difficult negotiations with Spain which are at present the chief external preoccupation of the French Government. France would be most unwise to make an enemy of Spain over the Morocco negotiations. While the war between Italy and Turkey lasts the strain upon Italian finances is bound to be very groat, and ultimately that strain must be felt by the Italian people. Though her financial condition has so greatly improved of recent years, Italy is still, comparatively speaking, a poor country—one in which far too large a pro- portion of the people's earnings has to go in taxation. Italy, we fear, can never be a financial gainer from her North African conquests, and must for many years to come be a financial loser. But if the continua- tion of the war is a danger to Italy it is a still greater danger to Turkey. When the war is concluded, as it must be soon, the difficulties of the Turkish Government and the internal situation in Turkey generally must be faced, and it is not easy to see how the outcome can be pacific. But if a life-and-death struggle, as appears only too likely, takes place between the Young Turks of the Committee and their opponents, how can the result on the general international situation be other than disastrous P As we see in the cases of China and of Persia, when nations are weakened by domestic revolutions the temptation to their neighbours to say, " Now is the time to take this or that piece of territory which we have coveted so long" becomes almost irresistible. Turkey is specially a prey to such aspirations. Weakness in Turkey goes to the heads of the various States of the Balkans like new wine. But any movement on their part is sure to bring Austria-Hungary into the field. Austria- Hungary, no doubt, sincerely desires to maintain the status quo, but if it is altered she is determined, both in Albania and in Macedonia, to show herself the predominant partner. The spring in the Balkans is the season when kings go forth to war, and as soon as the snow is off the ground we may feel sure that the question of whether the time has not come for action will be seriously discussed by Roumanians, Bulgarians, Servians, Montenegrins, Greeks, Albanians, and the mixed population of Macedonia. Pos- sibly once more the number and variety of interests engaged will suffice to prolong the condition of unstable equilibrium, but it is a matter on which no one can speak with anything approaching certainty. In Persia we find a situation in which the maintenance of that status quo which is the diplomat's ideal even more difficult. Happily, however, the Anglo-Russian Agreement is here a tower of strength. Even with it, it may be impossible to prevent the Persian Government, in the words of Sir Thomas Browne, from " concluding in a moist relentment," but at any rate it is safe to say that the Agreement very greatly discounts the danger.
We have kept China to the ]ast because all the other instances of unrest must pale before the spectacle of an empire of some four hundred millions of people iu the tumult of revolution. Here a political upheaval of the gravest kind is not threatened but iu being. We already see a Westernized Chinaman and a Christian installed as President of a Chinese Republic and the Manchu dynasty trembling to its fall. It is, of course, just conceivable that the Northern Provinces may elect to stand by the Throne, though it is difficult to believe that this is what is going to happen. But even if it does the outcome must be civil war, for we cannot believe that either side will be content to allow China to be split permanently into a Northern Kingdom and a Southern Republic. Meantime China's neighbours are moving. In spite of the fact that the Mongolian princes are closely allied with the Manchu dynasty and the Manchu aristocracy, they have in effect thrown off their allegiance to China. In taking this action they are being backed by Russia, who is rumoured to have in effect assumed a protectorate over the frontier province and to have intimated to China that no reconquest of Mongolia will be allowed.Very possibly i China Proper, whatever may turn out to be its government, would be stronger, not weaker, for losing Mongolia ; but the Chinese are no more likely to assent to its loss with a good grace than Turkey assents to the loss of her useless Tripolitan possessions. We shall not attempt to judge Russia's action, but, whether justifiable or not, it is sure to be a cause of difficulty in the Far East. To begin with, it is only too likely that Japan will assert that the balance of power has been upset by Russia's Mongolian policy, and that she must at once take compensating action in Manchuria. It is very greatly to be hoped that even if she does a general scramble may be avoided, but when once land-grabbing begins it is very apt to prove a highly infectious disease. Mr. Kipling in one of his stories makes the chief of an Indian hill tribe excuse the predatory action of his people by declaring that they were in a panic. My people, when they are frightened, always steal.' The Powers, when they become alarmed and anxious as to each other's inten- tions, almost always annex something. Experience, however, would seem to show that though the maxim, " When in doubt rob your neighbour" is so constantly acted upon, it is in reality as foolish as the old-fashioned maxim of the country whist player, " When in doubt play trumps." The problem of the future of China remains by far the most interesting as well as the most anxious of all the problems that now distract the field of international action. In another column we have dealt with certain historical and geographical aspects of those outlying parts of China which have in the past been eaten into by China's neighbours and upon which at the moment there is a new attack. Upon this point, then, we will say no more except to note that we may be sure that neither the Revolutionists nor the Imperialists will willingly acquiesce in the loss of Mongolia. To do so would be to score a point against themselves and in favour of their rivals. Whatever may be their real views as to the value of Mongolia, neither side will dare to say that the province is not worth the bones of a Cantonese coolie.
Reviewing the situation as a whole, the only consolation discoverable seems to be one which is said to have often consoled the late Lord Salisbury in moments of difficulty. It is a tradition that he used to declare that there was less danger when things were bad all round than when there was only one point of peril. When there wore difficulties in every direction they. tended to neutralize each other. Tho boat was, as it were, better trimmed by the passengers moving some one way and some another than by one heavy passenger throwing his whole weight suddenly on the port side while everybody else sat still. Be this as it may, it is at any rate satisfactory to know that we have at the Foreign Office a statesman who will not make things worse through panic or through violent action or by yielding to the temptation to make some sensational stroke of high policy. Sir Edward Grey is certain to be reasonable and moderate, and not to exasperate the situa- tion by ill-judged or aggressive action. Whatever may be the criticisms made upon him at home by certain Radical politicians, he has undoubtedly not only gained the confi- dence of his colleagues, but also that of foreign statesmen. They know that his word is to be depended upon, that he is not a mischief-maker, and that he has the interests of peace steadily and sincerely at heart, though he does not indulge in. the conventional rhetoric of the professional pacificist.
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