BOOKS.

URQUHART ON RUSSIA'S DESIGNS AND PROGRESS.. IT is unfortunate for the reputation and perhaps for the utility of the Russophobists, that they allow phobia to pass into mania, and have not the faculty of presenting even their more founded conclu- sions in a very likely-looking way. A small amount of falsehood will leaven a good deal of truth, especially if the mode of state- ment be inflated or burlesque. Truth really predominates in that seeming climax of inconsequence-

" Who made the quartern loaf and Luddites rise ?

Who fiU'd the butchers shops with large blue flies ? With a vile earthquake ravaged the Caraccas, And raised the price of dry goods and tobaccoes?"

for the rise of prices and of Luddites might directly or indirectly be attributed to Napoleon and his wars. So Mr. Urquhart, by a manner mildly dogmatic as if his revelations were beyond chal- lenge, by want of logical conclusion, and sometimes by the ob- viously extreme nature of his assertions, hardly stops short of " hoarse Fitzgerald," burlesqued in the _dejected Addresses. For example, he tells us that Napoleon, circa 1805.6, was really anxious for peace with England, and everything was settled, but the in- trigues of Alexander caused it to be broken off. The same Alex- ander, when checked by England, France, and other powers at the Congress of Vienna, contrived Napoleon's escape from Elba. In 1850, Nicholas concocted a sort of gunpowder plot at Constanti- nople, with a plan to poison the Sultan (page 366) ; the scheme failed, because, when " the Admiral's ship was blown up. in the Golden Horn, the Ministers had not at the moment arrived on board," while " a draught prepared for the Sultan was swallowed by an eunuch." It was Russia that elected Louis Napoleon to the French Presidency ; the same power turned the President into an Emperor, and will when it suits her purpose destroy him. These and similar stories, such as the corrupt complicity of Lord Palmerston with Russia, will militate against the reasonings and the facts of a book which, appears at an appropriate time, and which if written with more measure, and in consequence relieved of much extraneous and much clogging matter, would have been a work of considerable utility.

In a late notice of the Castlereagh Correspondence, we showed by extracts from diplomatic agents at various places the incessant and unscrupulous intrigues of Russia in all directions. To ex- hibit these upon a large and systematic plan since the late peace, is the object of Mr. Urquhart's volume ; which, it may be said, was in preparation before the late entanglement. Some addenda alone relate directly to passing events ; and this gives rather a se- condhand air to many of the details, because they refer to topics altogether past, or which have been discussed of late and hence are in a degree trite to the reader. They are also done with a rather fatiguing minuteness : but some are really remarkable as pro- phecies, if the book has received no revising touches since the late embroglio. Spain, Hungary, the three Northern kingdoms of Sweden, Nor- way, and Denmark, the Danube and the Euxine, the Levant and the Red Sea, are the heads under which Mr. Urquhart arranges his subject. The chapters on Spain were written in 1846, with the view of warning the world against dangers from Spanish mar- riages ; but " the manuscript disappeared on its way to Madrid," and would have been lost to the world but that a friend had taken a copy. It might have been lost altogether without any great damage. A large part of the pamphlet relates to the diplomacy of France and England in Spain. That which concerns Russia is of small importance. Very probably ehe was busy. at the time of the revolt of the Isle of Leon ; all diplomatic agents are busy, doing nothing—the Russians doing mischief. That Mr. Urquhart ad- duces any evidence beyond gossip or opinion, or that she had any real interest in promoting the insurrection, we do not see. Her connexion with the Bourbon invasion of Spain in 1823 was well known, and her motive in common with that of the other Absolute Powers obvious.

The open facts and palpable motives of Russia in connexion with Hungary have nothing new. The idea of a formal plan to stimulate Hungary to revolt in order to weaken Austria, and then to assist Austria to put down Hungary,—the Revolutionary Go- vernment of the Magyars being agents of Russia, Gorgey her tool, and Austria her dupe,—seems an over-refinement. The facts ad- duced to prove Gorgey's premeditated treason from the beginning. would only prove him a bungling instrument. The Hungarian revolt and suppression is intelligible on the surface.

The Turkish and Danish subjects, with the collateral questions they involve, are the strong point of Mr. Urquhart. In " The Danish Succession,"--part of which was published in 1842 and 1844, and should have been condensed,—he goes very fully into the constitu- tional history of the Northern kingdoms and the topic of the Duchies. He also travels over the diplomacy at the length and detail which rendered the " honourable gentleman " a bore in a certain house ; but he sees clearly enough the blunder committed in the late arrangement, the power which is eventually given to Russia of placing some tool upon the throne of Denmark, or of claiming the crown herself as " heir general " if circumstances favour it. He is also clear upon what indeed is obvious, the danger to Sweden and Norway when Denmark is virtually or actually Russian; the in- jury to the commerce of the world, and especially of England, when

• Progress of Russia in the West, North, and South, by opening the Sources of Opinion and appropriating the Channels of Wealth and Power. By David Urquhart. Published by TrUbner and Co.

Russia is absolute in the Baltic ; above all, the danger of inva- sion which would directly threaten Great Britain with Russia on the German Ocean, and he might have added on the Elbe. She would then be little further from the Northern and most de- fenceless coats of Great Britain than Cherbourg is from the coasts of the Channel. So important is Denmark to Russia, in Mr. Ur- quhart's opinion, that he affirms the Eastern question has been got up to draw off the attention of Europe from the Northern. The Turkish division has not much direct relation to the sub- ject which is now holding Europe in suspense. Amid much that is apparently exaggerated in fact or inference, and evidently tedi- ous in narrative, Mr. Urquhart convincingly traces the gradual encroachments of Russia upon the navigation of the Danube ; her mischievous interference with Turkey and the commerce of the countries whose only outlet is the Danube; the slothful or timid acquieseence of successive British Ministers in stealthy or auda- cious claims and advances, which to a heated and onesided mind may look like the treason Which Mr. Urquhart charges, but origin- ates in a dislike to quarrelling, a desire for peace, and perhaps more than all in an aversion to bestow time and encounter trouble on remote objects, about which the public care nothing and know nothing. Among the various collateral subjects that Mr. Urquhart handles, are Russian influence in Egypt, and canals between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea and the Euxine and the Danube. A ship-canal across the Isthmus of Suez is doubtless possible, but whether it is available for practical use is another matter. That of the Danube is wanted. Mr. Urquhart's estimate of the expense is not to be implicitly relied on, we suspect. The defeat of Russia and the escape from geographical obstacles is more conclusive.

" The face of the earth presents no invitation to enterprise comparable to this. The facility of execution reduces to dimensions not exceeding the resources of a parish a work which would unite and enrich two quarters of the globe, which would add in security and wealth to the empire more than the conquest of a powerful kingdom. "The Danube, running in nearly a straight line from the centre of Hun- gary to within a few miles of the coast, suddenly turns up to the North, and after a devious and intricate course, loses itself through shallower channels, amongst noxious marshes, in the Black Sea. Its useless wander- ings extend a hundred and fifty miles, carrying it away from the direction of its usefulness, 'and bringing its navigation within autumn's fatal mias- mata and winter's icy chains. But the degrees of Northing it attains exposes it to worse infection than that which strikes the flesh. * * *

"'The exports of the countries watered by the Danube have to pass through the Bosphorus to reach their ultimate destination ; so that for commercial pur- poses the river may be considered a continuation of those straits and the Dar- danelles : in former times these were considered a continuation of the Danube. The winding of the river lengthens the voyage two or three hundred miles, batthe difference in time has to be calculated by months. The marshy nature of the country through which the crews have to track the vessels to the ports of 'shipment occasions loss of life; and the accumulation of sand at the only mouth necessitates the unloading of vessels of any size; political and sem, tafrobstaeles affect vessels of every class and nation, and consequently the freights are so much increased as to amount to a charge of Pity per cent on the staple produce of the country.

"The proposed canal would bring the Danube straight out into the Euxine, clear of obstruction, fever, and violence; and for all practical purposes, the inland countries of Transylvania, Serbia, and Hungary, would find them- selves possessed of a maritime coast. * * *

"It would be natural to suppose that this work has been hitherto pre- vented by obstructions such as rocks, mountains, or sand. There is, how- ever, nothing of the kind ; in fact, the Danube anciently discharged its water through this channel, and all that is to be effected is the reopening of the

ancient mouth, which is indeed through half its course at present filled with water. • • • • "In 1844, the Austrian Government, in consequence of the interruption of its navigation for the larger vessels by the shoaling of the waters, and urged by the Austrian Lloyd Company, adopted this project, and sent engineers to make the necessary surveys ; who estimated the expense at under half a mil- lion sterling. Negotiations were then opened with the Turkish Govern- ment; it was not unfavourably disposed, yet difficulties arose, and alterca- tions ensued, which were carried to such a pitch that the representative of Austria threatened to demand his passports, and the project was finally aban- doned. It is said, however, that Russia expended 100,0001. in bribes."

The uses of the Danube to the countries on its banks, especially to Wallachia and Moldavia—the loss to Russia from an open trade, and the gain to England, with a probably sanguine estimate of the capabilities—are thus described.

During the great European war, in which her very existence seemed at stake, Russia would not concede one point in reference to the Danubian Principalities. In 1812, she would not, when struck home by Napoleon, re- lieve herself from the Ottoman empire as a foe by the slightest surrender. The pertinacity with which she clung to what appeared useless and unintel- ligible clauses bearing upon wilds and deserts, so far from awakening the curiosity of European statesmen, raised only a smile of pity at her expense. "Up to the year 1833, no direct trade had been carried on between Eng- land and the Euxine. Whether, however, a large quantity of her goods were sent by Constantinople and Germany, at the fair of Leipsic alone the demand amounted to 300,0001. In the following year two British vessels en- tered the Danube, in the next year fifteen, in the course of 1836 twice that number were expected ; the native traffic in small vessels amounting to be- tween 700 and 800 cargoes. This rapid development roused Russia to the adoption of decisive measures, which were as minute as they were daring, as intricate as comprehensive ; now discrediting a firm, now firing on a brig, now fingering kegs of butter and skins of tallow, now grasping an estuary :

at last came the ' crowning work'—the robbery from Europe of principal river by care for its health !

"The exports are raw and heavy produce, for which water-carriage is essential. The return manufactured articles might bear the charges of land- carriage, but the demand is limited by the amount of exportation. The Danube is not the only water-communication, but it is the only road. Ores of metals (its mines were the richest of the Roman empire); rock salt (of which it contains mountains) ; timber (with which the sides of its mountains are clothed) ; bides, wool, tallow, sheep, goat-skins (flocks and herds may be multiplied to any extent); grain (in 1833 and 1834, when Russia, suffering from famine, was supplied by them, although recently relieved from occupa- tion, and still suffering from the effect of a war which had drawn from them five millions sterling and destroyed one quarter of the cattle); hemp of the finest quality (in the year 1835, it competed in London with that of St. Petersburg, notwithstanding the quadruple charge of transport) ; such were the products they could offer to England. Nor are these all the Princes of Wallachia and Moldavia were anxious to rival the Pasha of Egypt in the production of cotton (upon the importance to England of multiplying the sources, and augmenting the amount of that raw material, it is needless to dwell) ; and a vast region is available for the culture of the mulberry. * * " The basin of the Danube producing, as we have seen, exactly the same articles as Russia, every ton exported from the Danube was a ton less ex- ported from Odessa or St. Petersburg. But besides the difference in the source, competition would have affected the price; one shilling reduction on the cwt. of tallow or the quarter of grain is a loss to Russia of from 50,0001. to 100,0001. A document published at Odessasinder the authority of Count Woronzow, at a time when no danger was anticipated, is plain and conclu- sive on these points."

Mr.-Urquhart's estimate of Turkish virtue and Turkish power, we think, exaggerated: he certainly rates them very high. In the probable result of their military energy excited by desperation he agrees with Mr. Bayle St. John. In fact, it is upon the Turkish power that he builds his conclusion that Russia is not really contem- plating war, because she knows she is risking too much in a present war with Turkey. Mr. Urquhart holds the opinion we expressed in the notice of Demidoirs Southern Russia, that the true point of Turkish resistance was in Wallachia and Moldavia ; that when the Russians crossed the Pruth the Turks should have crossed the Danube. If our author's estimate of the Turkish power and spirit is even an approach to the truth, the delays of European diplomacy have inflicted a heavy blow on Turkey. In their timi- dity and over-anxiety for a peaceful solution, the diplomatists have played the game of Russia; and if failure under such circumstances amounts to treachery, have exhibited all the treachery which the author has charged upon Lord Palmerston for a long series of years.

The grounds on which Mr. Urquhart forms his conclusions as to Turkish strength and Russian weakness are various. He recurs to the difficulties and losses of the Russians in the last war, when Turkey was weak and disorganized from the great changes intro- duced by the late Sultan. Now she is united, and her army, then in a transition state, is disciplined and effective. He points to the scanty population and resources of Southern Russia. Had the in- vasion of the Principalities not been permitted, a collected Russian army on the Pruth, or fighting in Moldavia, could not have 'beeii fed, unless at such an expense for the conveyance of provisions that the finances could not have borne it. This advantage has been surrendered by allowing the occupation ; but should the armies remain long enough to exhaust the Principalities, the same difficulty will recur, with the addition that the Russians will be still further from the source of their supplies. When the Danube is crossed this evil will increase : the marshes of Bulgaria will oppose their swamps and send forth their malaria except in time of frost ; the Turks will resist the advance of the Russians ; and if defeated, there is still the Balkan range. Besides these, there are internal evils. The Russian soldiers are badly fed, badly attended to when sick, and under the fatigues and privations of a campaign die off like rotten sheep. The Russian paper numbers and her actual force are two very different things. The cost of the munitions of war would be enormous ; it being assumed, however, that the Russians were not masters of the Black Sea, but had to draw everything overland. That there is some truth in Mr. Urquhart's conclusions as to the weakness of Russia in offensive operations, is proved by the trouble she had in putting down the last insurrection in Poland, and the length of

time she was waging war against Circassia, though Poland was in her possession and Circassia on her frontier. She has not tried a distant offensive war during the present century except in 1813- 14-15, when British subsidies supported her movements. In fact, the whole basis of her policy is to advance her frontier by en- croachments, so as to bring her nearer and nearer to the naturally rich and well-peopled provinces of the Mediterranean, and now, it would appear, to the German Ocean. Hitherto, with the exception of Poland, Whose partition is the European disgrace of the last century, her absorption of territory has been of wild and half-in- habited countries. The Principalities, backward as they may be, are the most civilized, rich, and by far the most commercial of any

territory Russia has yet annexed. We still think that fear or dis-

like of the freedom of Wallachia and Moldavia, such as it is, and jealousy, as Mr. Urquhart broadly asserts, of their growing commerce rivalling Odessa, have been the main causes of the mili- tary irruption. Such an occupation as the journals describe must destroy the capital of the Principalities, if it do not crush their energies.

Mr. Urquhart indicates another source of danger to Russia in hostile contact with Turkey : the Russians, he says, are Orientals ; —inert, and unimpressible as iron against Western Europeans, they are very likely to fraternize with Slavonians, Hungarians, or Turks; and not altogether from mere sympathy of blood—the Turkish troops are better paid and better fed. Mr. Urquhart tells a story, that in the former joint occupation of 1848, " the Russian soldiers fought for the offal of the Turkish barracks, and the scul- lions as they threw it out were wont to call Dogs and Russians ! '" But some of his anecdotes have an apocryphal air. In case of a war Russia might also be exposed to internal dangers, especially if Austria knew her interests. Poland is a slumbering volcano, and the tribes annexed to Russia are not al- ways submissive.

" The Cossacks, little as it may be suspected abroad, are not a mere troop of irregular horse, but a constituted republic, separated from Russia in a far more distinct manner than the Duchies are from Denmark : they admit no Russian to civil or military rank or post, and utterly repudiate the eccle- siastical pretensions and usurpations of the official Russian Church. An

ukase was published assimilating their administration to that of the other provinces of the empire : their contingent had by precaution been already despatched to distant frontiers ; nevertheless, the Deputy Iletinan instantly sent orders for the regiments of reserve to rendezvous at the point of their territories nearest to Moscow. The Emperor did not accuse them of begin- ning the war, but, with an army of 1,200,000 men at his disposal, explained the ukase as a mistake."

This " explanation " is a great card of Russian policy. She is arrogant in threats, but withdraws when she finds herself seriously opposed, or when she has accomplished her ends. This is very likely to be her mode of action on the present occasion. If her ob- ject was, as Mr. Urquhart asserts, to quietly practise in the North while the attention of Europe was fixed to the East, that object is attained as far as it can be pursued secretly. If she give a paper agreement to withdraw from the Principalities, she may evade it by delay, or she might withdraw, not in good faith but in fact. For before she goes she may exhaust the country, get rid of the more " dangerous," that is, independent inhabitants, and so injure their young institutions and cripple their industrial means that the country may fall into anarchy and poverty. The navi- gation of the Danube she has already damaged ; and as she holds the left bank on its only available mouth, she may practically destroy it altogether for the sake of the commerce of her Southern provinces, whose depot is Odessa.