The Threat to Turkey
The arrival of the tireless Dr. Clodius in Ankara to conduct trade negotiations with Turkey arouses varied speculations, in view of the fact that most of the potential Turkish exports which Germany covets are either earmarked for Great Britain or else reserved, as in the case of cereals, for Turkey's own needs, and that Germany, in any case, is in no position today to deliver manufactured articles in payment for them. For that and other reasons, notably the unexplained presence of Admiral Raeder, General List and General von Brauclaitsch at Sofia, Turkey has much more reason to anticipate activity in the military than in the economic sphere. An attack on her, failing compliance with German demands completely inconsis- tent with the preservation of her neutrality, has always been among the contingencies to be reckoned with. The toad, for Hitler, lies through Turkey to the oil of Iran, or to an assault on Suez from the north, or to a flank-attack on Budenny's forces if they are driven back on the Caucasus. A Washington report hints at an agreement reached between Hitler and Mussolini at their recent meeting, whereby the Italian fleet would force the Dardanelles and a Bulgarian army march through Anatolia, with Batum as the ultimate objective. The military value of an unwilling army and an incompetent navy is problematic. Turkey is well able to defend herself against either, and she would not be left to conduct her defence unaided ; staff talks between British and Turkish officers were not concerned with abstract principle. A German attack on Turkey might prove as great a miscalculation as the attack on Russia. On the whole a move in Libya seems more probable.,
