GERMANY, ITALY AND POLAND
OFFICIAL Germany today smiles at the world with a sense of satisfaction. The new German-Italian political and military pact has just been initialled, there is a feeling that it will take some time before British-Russian relations reach the " danger stage," and it is confidently assumed that before then the problem of Danzig and Pomerania (the so- called Polish Corridor) will have settled itself according to the Third Reich's desires.
The German-Italian pact is the logical consequence of the close co-operation between these two States for the past two years. This began with a cultural agreement which has since extended to include economics, law and labour legis- lation and reaches its present stage through many inter- change visits between the military leaders on both sides. Little doubt exists about the initiator of this new alliance. It comes from the Berlin-end of the Axis. The contrast between the reception given it by the German and the Italian Press indicates this quite clearly. The Third Reich is now definitely the dominant partner and as such has taken things into its own hands. A year ago it was still possible to debate upon the relative strength of either end of the Axis, and Hitler was able to get little out of Mussolini when the latter visited Berlin. All that has now changed. A definite refusal by Italy to take a certain line of action in a crisis might still withhold Germany, but the Duce would hardly openly follow a course which could lead to a conflict with " der Fiihrer."
German military and other officials have been all over Italy and the North African colonies during the past few months, acquainting themselves with conditions there in a way which suggests that they were gaining knowledge which would be very useful should there be a joint control of the military forces of Italy in a possible war—an eventuality which responsible circles here now consider a probability. The terms of the new pact are not yet known here, but it is generally agreed that some such arrangement has been made. In addition, the spheres of influence of Germany and Italy have been more carefully defined, Central Europe and the Baltic States being apportioned to the former, and the whole of the Mediterranean claimed by the latter. It is also assumed that the mutual commitments cover military aid against " aggression " anywhere within these areas.
This treaty simply consolidates what had been generally assumed for a long time. It is difficult to assess its real importance and permanence, especially as each of the sig- natories knows the other's interpretation of signed docu- ments contrasted with the " dynamic of events," and what Mussolini has described as " the great, wonderful, relentless violence of the decisive hour." But whatever may ultimately result from this new pact, and whatever use Italy may make of it, it is welcome here as diplomatic backing in the struggle with Poland and particularly in the hope that it will " be a warning " to the western democracies. The feeling that Italy's influence in the Danzig-Pomerania issue will be on the side of moderation and peaceful settlement is general here, though it is also freely admitted that should Herr Hitler consider the moment propitious to some other kind of action in the Free City, it will be clearly seen that where Germany considers its vital interests involved there can be no compromise—not a talking with, only a talking to the other party concerned.
The official and Press reaction to the calm and well- balanced statement of Colonel Beck clearly shows no desire on Germany's part for any understanding. Those British letter-writers to different newspapers who are always fond of writing after every one of the Fiihrer's speeches that here is yet another offer of peace if we (the British) would only take it, would do well to study German reaction to any- thing which is not onesidedly too per cent. its own stand- point. The proposal, heard in certain quarters, that Danzig should be settled by the Danziger—by a plebiscite—is now played up here. But it is to be hoped that no one in Britain is naive enough to imagine that here simply the issue of the right of self-determination is involved. The Danzigers have no freedom of expression of opinion under the present rule, and further the issue is much greater—that of control of the Baltic Sea and of Poland's exclusion therefrom. In the moment Danzig ceases to be a Free City, the same feverish rearmament and fortification will begin there as in Memel.
It is hardly necessary to add that the Danzig issue has long ceased to be one between Germany and Poland. Behind it the Third Reich sees continuously the hand of Britain. And all Britons would do well to realise that the ultimate settlement of this issue in a peaceful or other way depends upon the conclusions which Herr Hitler draws regarding our willingness and resolve to see that a just solu- tion is found. The tragic fact, which must be perpetually repeated, is that the Germans are still convinced that we will " not fight for Danzig," and since nothing but might counts with them today, all our pledges to the contrary fall on deaf ears, unless they are backed by a coalition support- ing collective security such as even the Nazis must heed. The words of Goethe "Is ist nichts schrecklicher als eine taetige Unwissenheit ! " (There is nothing more terrible than active ignorance) have an application for all of us who want to preserve peace today.
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