Chorus Prosperity
For a month now the news about production has been almost uniformly good. Coal leads the way, steel and cotton textiles follow, exports remain buoyant, a succession of week-ends of hard work to speed up the turn-round of railway wagons brightens wintry Monday mornings. There are clear signs of a psychological recovery, and last Thursday the Chancellor of the Exchequer was seen to smile. That perhaps is as far as jubilation can safely go at the moment. Even if the British ecorlomy has turned the corner, this is certainly not the time to start celebrating. Coal output would have to be maintained at its present level throughout the year in order to exceed the modest target of 214 million tons set for 1948. Steel production is already flagging slightly after the recent
seasonal spurt and there are ominous murmurs from the motor vehicle manufacturers about their steel allocation. The exports of 'textiles, to say nothing of the clothing ration, being what they are, there is a long way to go before reoowry can be said to be much more than psychological. And the problems of the railway wagon shortage will not be settled in three week-ends. Above all the underlying menace of inflationary pressure will not be removed by increased production on the present scale, even if it is sustained. It will certainly not be removed by the financial measures taken by the Government in the autumn budget and in the White Paper on Capital Investment in 1948. As is pointed out in an article on a later page, the total effect of these measures is insufficient to close the gap of over k600,000,000 in our international balance of pay- ments. Clearly Sir Stafford Cripps, as Minister for Economic Affairs, must give himself, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, some stern advice. It would be a pity if he took over Mr. Dalton's over- confidence as well as his office and his advisers, it would be a thing of ill omen if Sir Stafford became the second Chancellor with a song in his heart, even though he is supported by a swelling male-voice chorus from certain by-ways off Fleet Street.
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