THE COMING WAR BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN. A TTENTION has several
times been directed in the columns of the Spectator to the fact that the relations between the two principal countries of the Far East, China and Japan, have not during the last few years been of a very satisfactory character. Apart from the historic jealousy between these peoples, which appears in their eyes as natural a sentiment as did in those of our grandfathers antipathy for the French, specific causes of recrimination and hostility have arisen or been created during the last ten years. The Japanese affected a lordly scorn of their more sedate and deliberate neighbours, and having resolved to adopt a civilisa- tion which was accompanied by such tangible advan- tages as Krupp's ordnance and breech-loading rifles, they easily convinced themselves of their capacity to reap many advantages at the expense of their old adversaries, who re- mained, for several years after the Japanese accepted Western inventions, convinced of the excellence of their own ancient system. The Japanese began nearly ten years ago the carry- ing-out of a programme which was intended to extend their in- fluence over all the islands lying off the coasts of China, as well as in the kingdom of Corea. Eight years have elapsed since they landed an expedition on the coast of Formosa, and three have passed away since they took actual possession of the Loo Choo Islands, and deposed their king. The policy which was thus openly expressed in acts was one for which no justifica- tion and no necessity could be pleaded. Neither the Chinese Government nor Chinese subjects had committed any act of hostility, and the authorities of Yeddo, in sanctioning these measures, entered, without a sufficient reason and of their own accord, on a line of policy which can only be character- ised as one of reckless and unscrupulous ambition. En- -couraged by what seemed the apathy or the weakness of Pekin, the Japanese have proceeded from one act of defiance to another. Their forcible occupation of the Loo Choo Islands, and their. persistent efforts to assert their power and authority in the interior and at the Court of Corea have not failed to 'produce a sense of irritation, and even of indignation, among the Chinese. Telegrams received last week from China de- clare that great military and naval preparations are being made in all the ports and arsenals, and the papers received by mail from Japan explain this activity by saying that " new difficulties " have arisen. As a matter of fact, the explanation of these warlike movements is simply that the Chinese are now beginning to feel able to pat a summary limit to the aggressive action of the Japanese, and to compel them to make fit reparation for the outrages already offered to the dignity of China.
There is, fortunately, not the slightest doubt as to the prin- cipal cause of the sense of injury under which the Chinese Government now labours. Displeased as they may be on the score of Japanese intrigues in Corea, their first grievance is the unwarrantable assertion of Japanese sovereignty three years ago over the group of islands named the Loo Choo Islands. The original offence has been aggravated by the subsequent control established over the minor group called Madjicosemah, which possess peculiar claims to the super- stitious reverence of the Chinese. It may be well, then, to restate the simple facts of this ease, which, while revealing its anomalous character, also serve to show the moral justice of the Chinese view. For twelve centuries the people of Loo Choo have paid, with rare exceptions, to the Chinese that recognition of supremacy which islanders generally accord to the in- habitants of the adjoining mainland. Originally, that allegi- ance was exacted by force ; but, after the Loo Chooans adopted the Chinese language and many of their customs, the connec- tion was kept up, as one desirable and advantageous in itself. On every occasion when hostilities have taken place between China and Japan, these islanders have sided with the former ; and their conduct in this respect has been the more striking and disinterested, because the palm of naval superiority has generally remained with the latter. On the other hand, the Loo Chooans have always had, in consequence of the power of the Japanese at sea, , to act with circumspection in their dealings with their aggressive neighbours for the protec- tion of China beyond the mainland has hitherto proved of a fitful and uncertain kind. The powerful Satsuma Princes, prominent among the great Daimios by reason of their wealth, as well as by their intrepidity, carried on a considerable trade with the Loo Choos, and several centuries ago put forward their claim to exercise suzerain rights over their king. The indifference of the Chinese, so long as the tribute was received at the proper time, and so long also as there was no open asser- tion of Japanese sovereignty at Napakiang, greatly assisted the ends of the Satsuma Princes —to whose rights and position in this matter the restored Mikado of course laid claim, on the suppression of the rebellion five years ago. The japanese Government did not feel bound to pursue the politic action of the Satsuma Princes, who had ever been careful not to give umbrage to China, and confident in the possession of an iron- clad navy, and trained battalions armed with improved rifles, they at once proceeded to assert in an open and unmistakable manner their supremacy in the Loo Choos. The King was de- posed, and carried off to Yeddo ; a Japanese garrison was placed in the capital, and a Japanese fleet anchored in the principal harbour. As the necessary consequence of these acts, the tribute to China was discontinued, and three years ago it became widely known that the old connection between China and the Loo Choos had been broken off by the violent action of the Japanese. Japan thus administered a rebuff to China in the light of day, and the hope was indulged that the latter would accept the blow with such equanimity as she could muster, and that the tranquillity of Eastern waters would not be disturbed.
The lapse of three years has served to strengthen that belief, and although we than pointed out that the Chinese would never acquiesce in the loss of their rights, but only bide a favourable opportunity to reassert them, very few persons felt much belief in the pertinacity with which it was contended that China would uphold this shadowy and practically unimportant claim. The announcement that China is now preparing for a naval war, and that these pre- parations are being made for a contest with Japan, will serve to show the point of view taken at Pekin with regard to this matter. No doubt, the Loo Choo outrage acquires fresh importance and significance from the fact of Japan's recent activity at the Court of Corea, which has, however, responded with coldness to her overtures ; but in itself it was quite sufficient to inflame the indignation and rouse the resentment of a great and self-respecting Government. The Chinese Navy having now attained a state of efficiency which for the first time in history places it on more than a par with that of Japan, there remains no longer any reason for deferring the measures necessary to recover those rights which the Japanese have wrongfully usurped, or rather monopolised. The ultimatum that will be presented at Yeddo will be a demand to return to the status quo, or to accept the consequences ; and unless the Mikado's Ministers have the wisdom to forego those schemes of external aggrandisement of which the occupation of the Loo Choos was one of the preliminary steps, war must in- evitably ensue. The inconvenience, if not the positive danger, of such a contest must be apparent. The Japanese would un- doubtedly endeavour to reappear in their old role as the in- vaders of Corea, and, were war to break out in that peninsula, it might be difficult to confine the struggle to these Asiatic peoples. It becomes, therefore, the duty of our representatives at both Pekin and Yeddo to endeavour to moderate the passions of these rivals, and to establish an understanding between them, without resorting to the way of arms. But it should be widely understood that the moral right is on the side of China, and no one can conscientiously recommend her to waive her just claims before an aggressive neighbour. Japan has here been the wilful aggressor, and, for a brief space, she has attained
her ends. But she can only retain what she has seized by the word ; and it will be well for her if her Ministers, before plunging their country into a bitter war, carefully count up the cost, and endeavour to discover, with cold and impartial eyes, its most probable result.
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