THE STATE OF AFFAIRS IN EGYPT.
THERE have not been wanting numerous signs during the present year that the state of affairs in Egypt is very far indeed from being completely satisfactory. No Eastern country, and certainly none where Turkish Pashas retain the governing power, can be said to possess an incorrupt public service. Egypt is no exception to the rule, and the rottenness of its administration is fast becoming a fact as notorious as the peculation prevailing among the Cairo Pashas. Yet people have been content to disregard this generally admitted element of weakness, because the country has made some progress In material wealth, because the population continues passive, and, above all, because the Bondholders duly receive their dividends. Within the last few months, however, a fresh danger has appeared on the horizon of Egyptian politics, and the fabric of society, as it at present exists, is rudely threatened by the overweening confidence of the many-coloured soldiery. Already more than one collision has taken place between those who repre- sent the Palace and the Ministry, and those who speak in the name of the Army ; and as is usual in countries where the force of public opinion has little or no weight, the advantage in the discussion rests with the side which wields the argument of the sword. While this domestic struggle is in progress at Cairo,
war-cloud hangs heavily over the Abyssinian frontier, where the redoubtable King John advances pretensions to territory that Egyptian craft has wrested from his ancient kingdom of Ethiopia. Any approach towards war increases the power of the Army, and war is approaching. Not many months have elapsed since a mutinous spirit suddenly revealed itself in that portion of the Egyptian Army which might have been supposed to be the most attached to the person of the Khedive. On February 1st, in the present year, there occurred at Cairo a disturbance which, in any other capital, would have been considered a military revolt of the gravest kind. Two regiments of the Guard rose against the constituted authorities, and forcibly released one of their Colonels, who, whether justly or unjustly, which matters little so far as the Main point is concerned, had been placed in confinement. The excited soldiers marched with fixed bayonets through th e streets to the prison ; and if no blood was shed, it was due solely to the fact that no resistance to their illegal conduct was attempted. In face of this military demonstration, the ordinary guaidians of the law were powerless ; and the Khedive, who in person endeavoured to bring the soldiers round to a better sense of their duty, failed to obtain any result beyond loud, but evidently little-meaning, protestations of their devotion to his person. The soldiers returned in triumph with their Colonel to their quarters, and, as if to heighten the significance of the occurrence, a Nubian regiment fraternised with the Khedive's Guards. The Military class thus, for the first time in the present generation, learnt its power ; and during the last four months, the government of the country has only been carried on by the sufferance of these new dictators. By a course of events simple in themselves, Egypt is thus threatened with a return of the days of the Mamelukes. It appears, however, that although the soldhiry have thus forcibly expressed their wishes, the Khedive has not yet given up his preference for Circassian over native officers—a preference which constituted the chief grievance of his mutinous troops—and we are warned by those on the spot to expect, in conse- quence, an early repetition of the outbreak. The next time the military take the administration of the law into their own hands, they are less likely to abstain from insist- ing upon a complete redress of their grievances, for they will no longer be adopting a line of action to which they are unaccustomed. To give still further importance to the in- cident of February 1st, the discussions that followed in official quarters at Cairo revealed unpleasant differences of opinion among the accredited representatives of France and England. Baron de Ring, the French Consul-General, held strong views on the subject, and wished, by indirect means, to set his diplo- matic authority above the judicial functions of the Board of Control. In this he set an example which may quite possibly be initiated by the representatives of the Secondary Powers. The attitude he assumed led to considerable unpleasantness, and, although Baron de Ring undoubtedly always had the interests of the Fellaheen at heart, there was a sense of relief when he was recalled by his Government. M. de Blignieres, the French Controller-General, has more recently been transferred to Tunis, and thus greater authority than before happens to be vested in the hands of our representative, Mr. Malet. It is ominous of the future, however, that those who are seeking to establish the military caste in a position of supreme power in Egypt are averse to either European advice or restraint. A straw some- times tells how the wind blows, and the resignation of Sir Frederick Goldsmid, one of the Commissioners of the Daira domain, the other day—even though he may withdraw it— shows sufficiently clearly the nature of the counsels put forward by the party that is for the moment the strongest in the State.
Nor is the outlook in the foreign relations of the country with- out clouds. The one question of external policy, over which the Khedive possesses virtually unchecked control, remains un- settled. On the Abyssinian frontier nothing has been done either to satisfy the just demands of King John, or to show the in- justice of those that are unreasonable. The seaport which he has long coveted, and of which, despite what has been said to the contrary, he very well knows the value, both as a place of trade and also as the means of obtaining improved weapons for his soldiers, still remains in the hands of his enemies, Abyssinian subjects continue to be carried off into slavery, and his rebellious vassals are encouraged and assisted to appear in arms against his authority. With the object of disheartening his friends at a distance, a rumour of his death was recently circulated ; but the latest authentic in- formation proves this report to have had no foundation, for the Abyssinian monarch was then engaged in collecting a large army from the contingents of the vassal Princes whose fiefs compose his kingdom. Egypt does not possess a military force capable of successfully coping with the Abyssinian army ; and King John can easily overrun the territory adjacent to his own, so long as he is able to preserve tranquillity within his realm. In 1876 the Egyptian troops met with a succession of disasters at the hands of the Abyssinians, and there is every reason to believe that, under similar conditions, the result on the next occasion will be the same. In these causes of un- certainty and danger, which promise to be aggravated rather than mitigated by the action of the Khedive and his advisers, present or prospeetive, there is more than sufficient justification for suggesting a little scepticism as to the soundness of the roseate view taken of the state of affairs in Egypt.
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