Somali strength
Sir: Mr Mockler's 'forecast for the Horn' (28 January) overlooks too many factors to be credible. First, the bloody strife which is tearing Ethiopia apart makes it difficult to conceive how a country weakened by civil war could mount a full-scale counteroffensive in the direction of Berbera.
Secondly, Mockler completely ignores the role of air power. Somalia is credited With a strong air force. Surely Ethiopian tanks would be particularly vulnerable to Mig 21s? Thirdly, the actual theatre of conflict is much wider than that normally reported in the press. Ethiopia has not only lost control of the Ogaden but also of most of Bale province as well as of part of Sidamo Province. I would predict that it is much more likely that the WSLF (Western Somali Liberation Front) aided by the ALF (Abo Liberation Front), who are mostly Oromospeaking people, will capture important Provincial towns such as Imi and Neghelli, than that the Ethiopians will ever capture Berbera.
Finally, there is evidence that the EthioPlans dislike fighting in the lowlands of the Horn. They may possess all the military hardware they need for an offensive thrust but I doubt if they will possess the will and tenacity to see it through. (Or.) E. R. Turton 69 Lonsdale Road, Oxford
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