CORRESPONDENCE.
THE STATE OF PARTIES AT VERSAILLES.
[FROM A SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT.]
Versailles.
CAx there be any scene more full of curious matter for thought than the sight of Versailles in the month of June, 1871, with the irrepressible reflections associated' with it con- nected with the memories of former times and former doings ? Who can look on the life and throng in the streets of this most provincial town and in the stately space of this sumptuous palace, without having his mind irresistibly carried back to the remembrance of. what is recorded of 1789, the stirring scenes which then opened for France on the very same stage in a political drama still not played out? Here, after eighty- two years of tumultuous running wild in all directions, we agaits look upon the political life of France dammed up within this out- of-the-way reservoir of princely and artificial construction in which it was first quickened into life. Again, the interests,. and the hopes, and the fears, and the forces, awl the contests of France find themselves perforce congregated and concentrated' within the precincts of what is really nothing more than a monu-
ment in a sort of regal mausoleum in the grand periwig style of that bygone sumptuous monarchy of gorgeous gold and exquisite' ceremonial. The very same halls and the very same areas once- more are become the sites for the play of those great forces of France, and as you sit in the Assembly which is to decide the- constitution of the country, you find yourself in that historical% theatre in which, on occasion of the celebrated banquet given by the Guards, resounded the echoes of "Richard, oh mon Roi," its enthusiastic strains, which mainly precipitated on a stately., Royalty that wild night of the 4th October, the night in which a. memorable part was acted by the very father-in-law of the man. who is now speaking from yonder tribune. The father-in-law-
was Lafayette, the orator is Lasteyrie, a stout advocate for the- Orleans Princes (whose right to be elected is the question of the'
day), as his father-in-law had been a political ally of their grand-- father. Is there not here in very truth a kind of thrilling: resemblance, as if history itself were starting out of its grave and. walking abroad ?
But fascinating as is to me this aspect of Versailles, the' question of interest to those who consider it merely from a dis- tance is to inquire what is the temper and disposition of the- Assembly now invested with the task of defining the next form of government in France. Is it to be a Republic, or is the Monarchy. to be revived here, on the ground on which it was first shaken to- the roots ? I believe the answer to this question in a direct. affirmative or negative to be quite out of the power of any one ; for at this moment matters are in a state when results. are dependent not on organic force alone, but in a great degree- on accidents quite incapable of being beforehand reduced to a.. certainty. The first point to be clearly understood is the nature- of M. Thiers' position, which is very singular, for he is in power not through the ascendancy of any particular party or any personal. following, but rather through the present exigencies of party conflicts and the counter-play of factions, pretty much as. a ball keeps itself afloat dancing on the angles of water-jets. Monsieur Thiers has no popular position, his reputation and his. character are strictly parliamentary. It was in the reign of government that he acquired his influence, ancli. when he was brought into the Corps Lsgislatif it was not as the chosen man of the active and inveterate hostility to the Empire,. but in order to have in that Assembly an acknowledged parlia- mentary veteran, who could bring to the general cause of opposi- tion the weight and point of a recognized talent. What M. Thiers was supposed to bring to the Opposition was the kind of" professional skill which the presence of a regular officer in com- mand is considered to give to an insurrectionary body, namely, knowledge, tact, and design. It was the same character of pro- fessional efficiency which has invested him with the curious. authority in which he now finds himself. But the thing to be carefully noted is, that while Thiers by nature and antecedent is and cannot be other than a parliamentary being, the present. Parliament happens to dislike him cordially. This arises from the- circumstance that Thiers, though thoroughly parliamentary in his nature, happens in the eyes of the Assembly to figure as an emana- tion of that Government which started into existence on the 411t. of September, a Government which all parties concur in inveigh- ing against, for even the Republicans say that it was false ta6 their principles. Consequently Thiers finds himself in the most. anomalous position conceivable. In the country he has no party of his own ; he is in power in virtue of a title very difficult to. define, but which yet was sufficient to enable him to sign peace,. face to face with an Assembly divided into three distinct sections,. Legitimist, Orleanist, Republican, each of which sees in him as. long as he retains his present authority an impediment to the- attainment of its particular views ; and against their hostilities. he yet seeks to maintain himself with no other support than the: discordance of aim which embarrasses a coalition of Oppositions,. and the threat of creating a most perplexing vacancy at the moment by retirement. What Thiers really desires is the creation of a provisional Republic for a definite term of two years, during which men's minds may clear themselves and the Administration be reorganized ; but this arrangement disconcerts the special aims of the two monarchical sections of the Assembly. Now, of these the Legitimist is by far the moat powerful, and I have not a shadow of doubt that a vote taken at present in this Assembly would elect Henri V. by a large majority. The Assembly is thoroughly Monarchical—the Republicans being few, though sincere and respected—and also clerical, in which last respect it probably is in excess of what the country would deliberately sanction. But Monarchical though it be, as a whole, the Legitimist faction will require the co-operation of the greater part of their Orleanist fellow-Monarchists to carry the election of Henri V. by an over- whelming majority, and this coalition can be the result only of the fusion of the two branches of the Bourbons. Now I am induced to believe that though the Orleans princes, or at least some leading ones, have expressed their readiness to do homage to Henri V., 7et there has not been such a thorough renunciation of independ- ent claims and hopes as would make a hearty alliance. I fancy —and I speak hesitatingly, for it is very difficult to know posi- tively—that though a tacit understanding has been established, there has yet been no treaty signed, sealed, and delivered, so that the Orleans Princes, true to the family character, still stand in a more or less ambiguous attitude, ready to take a position as first princes of the Blood if they cannot get to be more, but also quite ready to take advantage of any opportunity that might offer for immediately mounting the throne. The issue at stake seems likely, to come off sooner than was anticipated, in consequence of the vote to be taken in reference to the validity of the Orleanist princes' elections. There is no doubt that the elections will be confirmed, but the point then arises, what is to follow? When on Friday last, by a surprise, the question of repealing the laws of proscription unexpectedly came on, Thiers expressed himself in the lobbies with singular bitterness, and declared that if the princes were not bound over to abstain from all public acts he could not carry on the Government. I apprehend that they are ready to resign their seats immediately after confirmation, but this will, for all that, not remove the practical fact that their presence in France is legally recognized, and such recognition can hardly be restricted to the younger branches. But the return to France of the Comte de Chambord never can be like that of the Orleans princes. Pretenders and schemers though they are, they can yet affect the character of mere citizens, for they never have pro- fessed any title higher than from the people's grace ; but the Comte de Chambord never has denied his being Henri V., never at any time has made the slightest profession of modifying this claims. In evil times he bore himself the representative of a divine right disowned by his generation, and is he to be expected to divest himself of any of his pretensions when the same genera- tion at last turns to seek him in his life-long exile? Therefore Henri V., if he is brought back, will be every inch the representative of his principles, and what we have to expect from him is a Restoration in the full sense of the term. Of course, this is not a prospect pleasant to thoughtful men, to friends of rational progress, and an effort accordingly is being made to avert such a result. I believe that at this moment strenuous attempts are going on to stave off the coming to a vote immediately, under the belief that time gained is so much taken away from Henri V.'s chances. I think the calculation is sound. It is only through favour of the moment that the Legitimists can succeed. If the provisional state of things is prolonged, I apprehend the Monarchy, which anyhow must come in the end, will be vested in other hands,—either Orleanist or Bonapartist, according to circumstances. Now, in England, an idea seems to prevail that the Bonapartist element is the one likely to assert itself. I think that the notion is incorrect. In all I have written I have in view simply the present, the imme- diate future ; and in respect to it, I do not consider an Imperial Restoration likely, because for the moment it has no party to rely upon, the priests going in for Henri V., and the Army of the day —the reformed Army which captured Paris—having not yet acquired any political sentiments. If there were some General holding the kind of position Changarnier possessed as Commander- in-Chief under the Republic, the Army might be formidable. Such a General may spring up in a few weeks, but I say that at present there is no military man in command who is of a disposi- tion to head a movement against the existing Executive, while it is the universal impression that Marshal Macmahon, who has been put out of humour more than once by Thiers' interference, though little inclined to take any initiative, is inwardly ready to hail Henri V. as his sovereign. Such is the outline of the present condition of French politics. On the one hand, there is in power a distin- guished parliamentary veteran, trying to govern France provision- ally through an Assembly to which he is decidedly distasteful, and his only means for ruling which are to be found in dexterity and a ready use of the alarm created at the thought that he might
resign at once. On the other hand exists an Assembly decidedly mon- archical, strongly clerical, but considerably embarrassed by a division between two rival claimants to the throne. Finally, you have these two claimants, the Howie of Orleans and the House of Bourbon, the former offering itself cunningly, protruding itself on public; notice, seeking by many ways and through many channels to ingratiate itself with the people ; the latter doing really nothing to conciliate what may be considered the acquired feelings of the age, on the contrary, uttering a declaration of principle that in the most marked manner emphasizes what might have been con- sidered exploded notions, strong, therefore, in nothing except the uncompromising definiteness of proclaimed opinions, and which, in spite of apparently antiquated sentiments, is being invited by a large section of the community. In such a state of things it is impossible to foretell the upshot. I firmly believe that the chances at the present hour are decidedly in favour of Henri V., but the whole thing is exactly like the betting on the Derby. All the world is of one mind as to who the favourite is, but the event of the race, nevertheless, in a vast degree depends on accidental cir- cumstances, rather than on intrinsic qualities.
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