New World
rTHE Prime Minister and Mr Kosygin are I talking this week about a world which is very different from what it was just a year or two years ago and which is chang- ing faster all the time. One of the most im- portant changes—the establishing of re- lations between Rumania and West Ger- countries are in evident turmoil over what to do about it while he is here. And at the same time Russia cannot long maintain both her own diplomatic relations with China and her dignity. Quite clearly China is pushing for the break. These are obviously not things which Mr Kosygin will like to speak about. It is certain, how- ever, that they are much on his mind.
The old context of Anglo-Soviet talks was the cold war, with Britain offering herself, and at times accepted, as mediator between Moscow and Washington. That context is now dead. Moscow can, and does, talk to Washington direct. The two capitals have learned to respect each other and behave towards one another with caution or re- straint. Now Russia woos Britain directly as a potential member of the wider Europe whose special relationship with the United States has dwindled and will dwindle still further. Mr Kosygin speaks of Europe at times in curiously Gaullist terms, as though what he and General de Gaulle wanted from Britain was much the same. There is no need to accept all that he says at its face value. Britain has no particular reason yet to trust him too far. On the other hand the old British response of relying on the post- war balance of power to keep the peace in Europe is no longer adequate. Both Russia and America are loosening their grip on Europe. Rumania has defied Soviet policy for several years now, and got away with it. Not only does her foreign minister boycott a meeting of the Warsaw Pact this week, he blithely skips off to Brus- sels to improve his contacts with the West at the same time. France has done the same sort of thing with the United States. For a time this did not matter too much. Within their respective alliances France and Rumania were alone and thus relatively unimportant. Now their example is proving catching. Rumania has embarrassed the Eastern countries not so much because she has established relations with Bonn, but because they do not know what to do about it. Hungary and Czechoslovakia are resent- ful because they would like to do the same thing themselves, but not having shown the same independence before, hardly dare. East Germany is furious, Poland angry be- cause Rumania bothered to win no diplo- matic concessions (on the Oder-Neisse line, for instance) in return. Russia appears caught somewhere in the middle with events moving too fast for her. Pravda indeed be- trayed some of her real feelings about her allies the other day when it reminded its readers that Hungary, Rumania and Bul- garia had all been allies of the Germans in the war. How uncertain, then, the Russians must be about East Germany now!
And the infection is spreading in Western Europe too. The new government in Bonn first went out of its way to asso- ciate itself with France and all France has done in the East, then it caught Rumania and is now angling for more. Italy is mak- ing quiet progress in its relations with the East all the time. It would be foolish to pretend that all this sudden movement is necessarily for the good, but equally foolish to ignore it. Up to now both Britain and Russia have shown themselves well on the side of the conservatives, preferring the established security of the old post-war system to the risks of the unknown. They have lost influence in Europe accordingly.
De Gaulle, who despised the post-war system from the beginning, was for a long time called a man of the nineteenth cen- tury. In fact, it is the nineteenth century which is prevailing. The climate in Europe is heady, uncertain and exciting. Both Britain and Russia have to adapt them- selves to it.
There was a fear that Mr Kosygin's visit to Britain this week would look small beer compared with his earlier trip to France. This has not been happening. The Russian Prime Minister has gone out of his way to prevent it. He has spoken to Britain as a European power. It is a mistake to dismiss all this as diplomatic flattery. On balance, Russia would probably prefer Britain to play a European role from within the Con- tinent. That is what most of us want.
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